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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (30781)	4/16/2005 8:10:26 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Going forward my number one concern is liquidity. Unfortunately, I do not believe PMs solve that problem, and I am starting to think cash does. I think the way one of fleck's friends sees this evolving makes perfect sense. Message 21234661 As I was thinking about the best way to put all this into perspective, I received an email from my favorite foreign-exchange observer. I found his synopsis so succinct and on-the-money that I wanted to share it, rather than offer one myself: "Outlook: $ stays firm(ish) until the market starts to focus on the data, rather than nonsense Fed is feeding them. THEN Treasurys start to rally hard, 10-year back below 4%, back-end euro-dollars take off. THEN, at the same time, the dollar starts turning south again hard, regardless of problems within euroland (which will escalate, by the way, in the months ahead). THEN equities, which have been under pressure for months, start to fall dramatically. THEN, the housing sector gets whacked. THEN Greenspan, desperate to maintain some sort of legacy, starts trash-talking the dollar, finally realizing that he is trapped. THEN this entire cycle feeds on itself. THEN gold goes ballistic. Patience still required, but that is where I see it going, in a nutshell." That's about how I see it going, too. my guess is this is going to evolve fairly quickly, and it's not going to take long for the dollar to begin weakening. gold may not soar right way, but it should start going up, and the miners will start rising in anticipation of that. obviously, that doesn't mean the miners are done going down, but it should pay to stick out some occasional bids to accumulate more.