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To: Sig who wrote (174724)	4/16/2005 5:54:58 PM
From: stock bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

Sig, many thanks for expanding on my original comments. You did an outstanding job in you analysis. I must agree with your comment about this being a very "erie" event. I know the odds of history repeating itself are small, never the less, I'm not comfortable with whats been going on in the market and the economy. IBM's comments carry a lot of weight. All I can say, is ensure that you have stop loss order in place, and I for one am going to tighten them up. Again, thanks for your great analysis. Stock Bull

To: Sig who wrote (174724)	4/16/2005 11:26:53 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176388

October 19, 1987 followed an options expiration Friday, as was April 15, 2005. So I would drop your odds from whatever you think it should be to 1/20 of that. 3650 looks like you were thinking 1 day in 10 years. Once in 10 years may be too low, But if once in 20 years and only once a month on the Monday following expirations would be 1/240. An end-of-4/18/05 one-day decline of 22% on the DJIA seems like 1 in >50 years There have been many times with imbalances following options expirations. Many times people positioned large in the wrong direction. In falling markets people who sold puts to grab premium find on Monday they have new positions they need to unload. (In rising markets people who sold calls to grab premium and find on Monday they have been sold out want to buy back.) Short sellers who sold covered puts and are put the stock would likely want to reposition their short position. Do options and futures markets wag the market? I don't know. But in the short-run they do. What happened on October 8 and 9 in 1987?