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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pfalk who wrote (67698)	4/17/2005 3:24:18 AM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 77400

Note, I didn't say that there WAS a bear market 2 years ago, Note, too, I was actually not saying that we are having a bear right now, only that the lows will be trending lower, and the highs will also be trending lower. Well, here's what you said exactly: There is a secular bear market ongoing, especially in High Tech. Message 21233089 So, yes, you did imply that there has been a bear market ongoing for an extended period. If you only meant to say that tech has declined for the past four months, uhmmmm, no kidding. As for the lows and highs trending lower, since 2004 was UP from 2003, that can't be true. 2004 highs were higher than 2003 highs. That the most recent TWO YEAR PERIOD, and it certainly wasn't indicative of a bear market. As for the future, we shall see! You may be correct and we get lower lows and lower highs from here.....but, then again you may be wrong. Me, I donno! Of course every high was below the "bubble", it's going to take awhile to take out those highs! But valuations look cheap to me. I generally deduct net cash from stocks and then take their EPS forecast for the next four quarters to be reported,. and PE's on that basis are cheap. We've got IBM at 14.4x, HPQ at 12.1x, Dell at 18.9x, EMC at 16.9x, CSCO at 15.5x, MOT at 13.5x, and JBL at 16.5. I don't know where you got the idea that the PE for tech is 20x, but I'll bet that is a composite which includes some stocks trading at 80x because their EPS is depressed (or even negative?), and that is distorting the average. The blue chip tech stocks (EMC, DELL, JBL, CSCO) are below 20x, and the dogs (HPQ, IBM?, MOT?, SFA?) are below 15x.