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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: etchmeister who wrote (14501)	4/17/2005 8:37:42 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

OT Re: U.S. gasoline inventories last week were probably unchanged at 212.3 million barrels, according to the analyst survey. Supplies the week before were 5.7 percent higher than a year earlier, according to Energy Department data And yet prices are up 35%? What is wrong with this picture?

To: etchmeister who wrote (14501)	4/17/2005 9:35:17 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

>> I hope the strategic oil reserve does not provide a "relief valve"/loop hole for speculators (supposedly there is plenty of capacity left in the salt caverns - strategic reserves continue to grow/bloat). I recall that in Sept '04, the strategic oil reserve was at 670m barrels full. With a capacity of approx 720m brls. I think the fed gov stopped adding to it in Nov '04 because it is practically full. At the time, the rate of addition was approx 100k brls/day.

To: etchmeister who wrote (14501)	4/17/2005 9:56:42 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

Hi etch, My impression is that the Nymex oil pits have been busting out in trade volume.The open interest exceeds all historic norms near term and farther out. Greenspan nailed it when he said future contracts futher out are high in price and that usually signals a "market frenzy". My take on it is they are leveraged out into the future on a record high open interest. This scenario coupled with multi year high levels of inventory and record high outward open interest has the makings of a huge house of cards that can collapse fast. Oil companies have seen this before - remember the Exxon/Mobil merger that Clinton regime didn't even bat an ayelash at - because oil was at $10.00 a barrel? This is why they are so conservative about spending 5-10 billion over a 5-6 year time line and then have crude go below what their cost to produce is, in way out places like ANWR or Angola. The current price spike is creating increases in supply and that is why Saudi's don't like it - thusly their increased pumping commitments. They know this spike in oil is far from permanent.It will force conservation ,which never looks back and bring on additional supply - which never shuts down ,but may well deplete. Take a decline in China and a decoupling to the dollar (which will increase their costs and export prices) and you'll see the biggest contraction in oil demand as new projects come onstream - it will be ugly city in the oil patch again. Just the other spin that no one even thinks about - but I've sold trucks to the oil patch for 20 years and believe me it happens. Bob Just like tech stocks - they are all very well capitalized.