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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (160605)	4/18/2005 5:42:56 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

considering the fact that I have been talking about all Iraqis, not just the Sunnis, and that even many Sunnis didn't like Saddam much. Certainly the Kurdish Sunnis didn't like Saddam. As for non-Kurdish Sunnis, a lot depended on what part, or what tribe of the Sunni Triangle they were part of. There were definitely tribal rivalries and plenty of Sunnis hoped to assassinate Saddam so they could take over the Ba'ath party and control of the country. But like mafia crime families, when faced by an outside threat, they join together for mutual protection. But the point that I'm trying to make is that the Sunnis are looking for a representative that will gain them as much power in the national government as possible. The Shi'ites and Kurds, on the other hand, are starting to realize that Sunni extremism is a threat to their security and that they will need to compromise in order to form a national reconcilition. Failing to do so will ensure continue Sunni militancy and violence against them and probably result in an Iraqi civil war. And the Shi'ites and Kurds EACH have other threats to worry about, namely Iran and Turkey. Al-Sistani will die within the coming years and there is no one who appears to have the prestige to replace him. And the Shi'tes, while sharing the same religion with the Iranians, are Arabs, not Persians. Thus, they will hope to have an ARAB protector, even if not Shi'ite. This is where I believe the Hashemite regime fills a role. It fosters unity and compromise under a constitutional monarchy, while protecting the interests of Shi'tes and Kurds from outside threats. And such unity is going to be hard to accomplish without having a strong symbolic leader. Thus, my view is that we cannot count out the psychology amongst ALL ethnicities, when it comes to a Hashemite renewal. Hawk