Steve, did you see this op-ed by Nahum Barnea about two months ago? He thinks Sharon is driving towards a goal - a firm border than encompasses the main settlement blocs, with American blessing. I agree - and it makes sense of his current policy. If the Pals attack after Israel has withdrawn from Gaza, against the wishes of their own war-weary population, how strong a support will they find elsewhere? Sure, there will be the usual chorus of knee-jerk support and decrying 'tit-for-tat' violence, but what will it matter? Meantime, more of the security fence will have been built, the chances of successful suicide bombings will be low, and Sharon will be closer to his goal.
_____________________________
Rook for the queen
Sharon is no dove; he sacrificed Gaza to keep hold of the West Bank
If the country was chess, one can say that Sharon on Sunday sacrificed a rook so he could defend the queen.
The Sharon government on Sunday made a bartering transaction: evacuation of the settlements in the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria in exchange for world acceptance of Israel's de facto annexation of 7 percent of the West Bank.
Here’s the main thing: Sharon believes that his plan will put off for years, perhaps forever, a withdrawal from all the territories. His tactics may have changed, but the plan remains the same: to reach a stable arrangement that will leave Israel with a large chunk, up to 40 percent, of the West Bank. The minister closest to this position in the government is not Ehud Olmert or Shimon Peres, both of whom voted in favor of disengagment, but rather withdrawal opponent Tzachi Hanegbi.
Sharon remains a pragmatic hawk
Sharon did not turn into a dove. He remains what he has always been: a pragmatic hawk, and is now flying high.
He believes that his disengagement plan was a determining factor in the disappearance of terror. Even if there is no connection between the two, this is the impression the public has. One year and and three months have passed since Sharon presented his plan for the first time, and during this period terror has faded. The threat Israel perceived from the International Court in the Hague and United Nations institutions has evaporated. Relations with Europe have improved miraculously. Egypt is embracing Israel. Jordan is praising Israel. The political initiative is entirely in Israel's hands, where it will remain until at least the completion of the evacuation, in another 6-7 months.
In internal politics, Sharon is riding a wave of victory. When he proposed his plan the first time, he nearly caused the fall of his own government. Benjamin Netanyahu proposed a withdrawal from just three Gaza settlements, and Sharon was inclined to agree.
But the prime minister regained his composure. He was empowered when the National Religious Party resigned from the government, he derided poll results of the powerful Likud Central Committee opposed to his moves, he compelled his party to accept the Labor Party in the government, and in the end he passed his plan with a decisive majority, both in the Knesset and the Cabinet.
Netanyahu, who was able to begin a rebellion, voted in the end a vote of “I told you so.” He did not challenge Sharon’s leadership. If the evacuation takes place peacefully, no one will remember his vote Sunday. If the clashes turn violent and traumatic, Netanyahu will be sure to remind the public that he voted against.
Likud ministers kept their grip on their seats
On Sunday he was part of the majority of Likud ministers, who poured on the crocodile tears (Minister Abraham Hirchson cried more than anybody), voted in favor, voted against, and not for a single moment did they loosen their grip on their ministerial chairs.
The political path the plan traversed is a compelling lesson in democracy. Most Likudniks did not want it, and today some of the plan’s supporters in the Likud are incapable of explaining it. The left in Israel supported it for reasons opposite those of Sharon. Thus, a coalition of the compelled was formed.
Sharon said Sunday that the decision to evacuate settlements was the most difficult in his life. The decision is truly hard. But more than Sharon loves to mourn, he loves to win, and his eyes were shut Sunday not out of grief but with the joy of victory.
The settlements were never a bargaining ship
The dream of the "Greater Land of Israel" was cracked by the autonomy agreement signed by Menachem Begin and shattered to pieces by the Oslo Accords. With the decisions the Cabinet approved Sunday Sharon broke another convention: That settlements are bargaining chips for negotiations. This illusion was created by Golda Meir and Yisrael Galili, from the Labor Party, and blinded generations of Israelis.
The settlements were not a bargaining chip, not in the eyes of the Palestinians and not in the eyes of the Israelis who live there. Now, when the government decides to evacuate 26 settlements and gets nothing in return, the lie is exposed. Sharon’s life work was the isolated settlements that were supposed to foil any attempt to divide the land. The billions invested there have gone down the drain.
When Sharon announced his plan, Palestinian Marwan Barghouti, currently jailed in Israel for his role in murderous terror attacks, was the only one who saw it as a blessing. He understood the crisis that had begun in Israel's political right. Today he is not the only one. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas sees it as a means to strengthen the PA. He does not believe in an agreement with Sharon. He believes in an agreement with those will come after Sharon.
Sharon will celebrate his 77th birthday this coming Saturday. Within a few months he will be the oldest serving prime minister in Israel’s history (Yitzhak Shamir was 77 in 1992 when Likud lost the elections). People at his age relax from their battles. Sharon is embarking on the biggest assault of his life. His victory Sunday was very impressive, but this is just the start. A not so simple year awaits him.
Nahum Barnea is senior political analyst for the newspaper 'Yedioth Ahronoth' and Israel's leading political commentator
(02.21.05, 10:51)
ynetnews.com |
