16 April 2005
The Hundred Days of Abu Mazen
Next Saturday, 100 days since Abu Mazen
(Mahmud Abbas) assumed the office of President
of the Palestinian National Authority, Jews will
celebrate Passover, in memory of the Exodus from
Egypt – one of the great stories in human annals.
According to the story (Exodus 5), Pharaoh ordered
the Children of Israel to produce bricks from straw,
but did not provide the straw. “And the Children
of Israel came and cried unto Pharaoh, saying:
Wherefore dealest thou with thy servants?
There is no straw given unto thy servants,
and they say to us:
Make brick!”
Abu Mazen might voice the same complaint.
He is being asked to fulfill the task he has taken upon
himself, without getting the minimum necessary
to do so.
After 100 days, what does Abu Mazen's balance sheet
look like?
In the positive column, there appear some impressive
achievements.
First of all, the very existence of his regime.
That is a striking achievement by itself,
which is being ignored because people
have become so used to it.
The sudden (and still unexplained) death of Yasser
Arafat could have caused chaos. Instead, there was an
astonishingly smooth transition to the new regime and
democratic elections took place without violent
incidents.
Very few peoples have managed to do that after the
death of the Father of the Nation. The entire
Palestinian public must be given credit for this.
It understood the gravity of the hour and united behind
the successor.
Second, the cease-fire.
That is an impressive achievement, too.
The armed Palestinian organizations (“resistance
groups” or “terrorist organizations”, according to taste)
agreed to a cease-fire vis-a-vis Israel, in spite of the
fact that Israel did not declare an official cease-fire
vis-a-vis them.
True, the informal agreement is being violated here
and there, sometimes by the Israelis, sometimes by the
Palestinians, but all in all it is honored much more than
could have been expected.
This is not the result of the weakness of the armed
factions. On the contrary, it is possible only because
the Palestinians have recovered their self-respect.
In the four years of the second Intifada, they have
shown they have hundreds and thousands of fighters
ready to sacrifice their lives. They have improvised
arms, like the mortars and Qassam missiles,
to which the Israeli army has not yet found an answer.
In these circumstances, the cease-fire is not seen as
humiliating.
(The Israeli side accuses the organizations of using the
cease-fire for re-arming. Of course. That is the nature
of any temporary cease-fire: both sides use it to
prepare for the resumption of the fighting).
Third, unification.
The agreement of Hamas to join the Palestinian
Authority (and perhaps also the PLO) and take part
in the elections is a very important achievement.
The birth of a national contract augurs well for the
future Palestinian state – especially as it happens
in an intense national liberation struggle.
Fourth: the change in the American attitude towards
the Palestinian people.
This should, perhaps, be put on top of the list.
Up to now, the American attitude towards the Israeli-
Palestinian conflict was at least 100% in favor of the
government of Israel; now there is a shift in favor of the
Palestinians. American support for the Israeli
government has sunk to only 90%, or perhaps
as low as 80%.
Abu Mazen's personality must be credited
for a considerable part of these achievements.
Yasser Arafat, the leader of the fight for liberation,
was a forceful, colorful, theatrical personality,
who attracted blind admiration and burning hatred.
Nearly everyone around the world knew the man in
khaki with the keffiyeh headdress. Abu Mazen is
almost the exact opposite: an introverted, moderate
person without colorful mannerisms. When I got to
know him first, some 22 years ago in Tunis, he was
already wearing a business suit and tie. He does not
arouse opposition. He fights for his convictions without
much ado.
Perhaps the negative column for Abu Mazen derives
also from these traits.
Arafat was a commander. Abu Mazen is an educator.
Arafat, too, preferred agreement to compulsion.
That comes from ancient Arab wisdom, the principle
of “Ijma”. Discussion continues until a general
consensus is achieved, with every single participant
agreeing. For Abu Mazen, that is essential.
The entire world demands that he carry out “reforms”.
It is not quite clear why it should concern the world or
the President of the United States how the Palestinians
conduct their affairs and how many security services
they have.
(Arafat deliberately established several armed
services, in order to prevent the concentration of armed
power in the hands of any single person who might be
tempted to carry out a coup-d'etat).
Abu Mazen is expected to consolidate the armed
organizations into three services. That is easy to do on
paper, but difficult to carry out. There are many
commanders, most of them with subordinates who are
fiercely loyal to them. None of them is looking for an
opportunity to resign.
In any case, it is difficult to carry out the reforms asked
for. In every Arab society, and especially in Palestinian
society, the hamulah, or extended family, is hugely
important. Any attempt to ignore it in the
implementation of reforms will meet with stiff
resistance. Abu Mazen must move cautiously, slowly,
trying to build consent. That is a prolonged process,
which aims for durable rather than quick results.
But the most serious failure of Abu Mazen, in the eyes
of his people, is on the national level: in the first 100
days he has not obtained one single significant
concession, neither from Israel nor from the US.
Bush does really want to help him. He praises him
publicly, rejects Sharon's efforts to belittle him,
sends him respected emissaries. But nothing has
changed on the ground: the Israeli occupation has not
been eased, the daily humiliations at the checkpoints
go on, and so does the building of the wall. Not one
single “outpost” has been removed, the settlements are
being expanded. The Israeli army carries on in the
West Bank as if nothing has happened, killing here and
arresting there. There is no significant movement
towards the release of prisoners. Israelis continue
addressing the Palestinians in the same overbearing,
humiliating tone used by military governors towards
their subjects.
When Bush talks about a “Palestinian state with
temporary borders”, every Palestinian understands that
this means the permanent occupation of most of the
West Bank. Sharon's “redeployment” looks to them like
a plan to turn the Gaza Strip into one huge prison,
cut off from the world and the West Bank.
Sooner or later, the Palestinian public is going to ask
Abu Mazen: Are these the fruits of the cease-fire?
Is this the value of American promissory notes?
There must be no illusion about it: this is exactly what
Sharon is hoping for.
For him, the sympathy Bush holds for Abu Mazen
presents a great danger. It is very uncomfortable for
him to share American favors with a Palestinian leader.
Any wavering in Washington's position of total support
for the Israeli government turns on a red light in
Jerusalem.
Sharon is too shrewd to attack Abu Mazen frontally.
That would infuriate Bush. Therefore, the pitch is:
Abu Mazen is a good person, but weak.
His regime is collapsing.
He is lost.
Several provocations have been designed to bring
about violent reactions, so as to expose Abu Mazen's
impotence. One was the announcement about the
building of 3500 new housing units in Ma'aleh Adumim
settlement. The same goes for the incidents in which
Palestinians are killed, without anybody finding it
necessary to punish those responsible or to apologize
for the violation of the cease-fire.
For the time being, it has not succeeded.
Bush needs Abu Mazen no less than Abu Mazen
needs Bush. The American president must prove to his
public that his military adventures have created a new,
free and democratic Middle East. Since the situation in
Iraq is shrouded in doubt, Abu Mazen's democratic
regime is the only example he can boast of (even if it is
not clear what part he played in this). Abu Mazen's
collapse would be a big loss for Bush.
Therefore, on the 100 th day of Abu Mazen,
the accounts are still not balanced. Like the Children
of Israel, he must produce bricks without getting
any straw.
But in the biblical story, there is a happy end:
the Children of Israel were delivered from bondage.
One way or another, that will happen to the
Palestinians, too.
Uri Avnery, Gush-Shalom |
