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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room (Moderated) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (15)	4/18/2005 8:32:16 AM
From: CommanderCricket	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89

Not enough new fields to offset decline THE world faces a global oil supply shortage after 2007, which would threaten economic growth, according to new research by the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (Odac) which says that not enough major new fields will come on stream to offset declines . “Our latest research confirms solidly our view that we cannot see any reasonable circumstances under which new supplies from expected mega oil projects could possibly meet world demand by 2008,” said a spokesman for London-based Odac. Chris Skrebowski, a board member of Odac, has analysed all planned oil field projects worldwide with reserves of more than 500 million barrels and concluded that, on current timetables, output from new fields will be insufficient to offset more major oil producers moving into net production decline. Shell, which last year faced a corporate crisis after overstating its oil reserves, recently said its reserve replacement ratio had shrunk to 19%, the lowest of any oil major. This means Shell is finding less than one-fifth of what it produces. “More and more countries are tipping over into absolute decline. There are 18 major producers and 32 smaller ones in decline already – that adds up to 29% of world production,” said Skrebowski. The Odac has calculated future scenarios based on a range of forecasts of annual world demand growth, ranging from modest expectations of 1% per annum up to 3%. Last year, global oil demand grew by 3.3%, fuelled largely by China, and Odac argues that if demand continues to rise at this rate then, by 2008, the world will face a shortfall of one million barrels per day. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week it expects a moderation in Chinese demand and high oil prices to cool demand in 2005. But Skrebowksi said the IEA underestimated demand in 2004 and had to revise its estimates upwards every month. He warned that if new field development timetables slip the world could face a supply shortage as early as 2007. Fears of new developments falling behind schedule are growing as industry leaders warned that a shortage of skilled workers is causing increasing problems. Sir Ian Wood, chairman and chief executive of Aberdeen-based energy services business Wood Group, said the people shortage has forced some contracting companies to stop bidding for work. “There’s a significant resource shortage right now. It’s a global workforce and a global issue,” said Sir Ian. Geoff Runcie, chief executive of Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said: “I’ve just spoken to two managing directors who say their work has been curtailed because they haven’t got the people.”