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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (22872)	4/19/2005 4:22:40 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

I'm not saying we won't get a recovery in 2006. I'm not even saying that many stocks in the semi equipment area are not fairly valued now based on recent cycles. But with the twin deficits so high, oil prices a drag on the economy, interest rates rising and the Federal Government not needing to implement any new incentives at this time to get party candidates elected a recovery does not have to take place until the entire economy has actually stumbled. The few of the majority here is myopic. Just because semiconductors and semi equipment stocks have sold off does not mean the rest of the market reflects and future difficulties yet. It will in good time in my humble opinion. But tonight the market is reacting nicely to INTC I do believe. RtS

To: The Ox who wrote (22872)	4/19/2005 8:24:59 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 95617

Yet the peak wasn't nearly as strong as previous upturns. The peak in 2004 wasn't as "pointy" as previous peaks - it consisted of several months; on the opposite the bottom appears to be more shallow - IMHO all signs that even in case of SCE the magnitude of the ups and downs is getting reduced. home.comcast.net To directly answer your question, no, the rebound does not have to happen in 2006 but currently most indicators that I have looked at point to the rebound starting in 2 to 4 quarters. Can this be pushed out? Sure. However, most estimates for individual companies show expectations of 10% plus revenue growth for 2006 vs 2005 but much of this is back end loaded for the 2nd half of 2006. home.comcast.net