Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (22880)	4/19/2005 5:48:19 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

EDIT to my last post. It was way wrong in one respect. If the yield curve goes negative the market will still be at plenty of risk until institutional investors believe that the FED and Federal Government will help the economy enough to right the market. Look at the charts again. investorshub.com The last time the yield curve went negative was in the summer of 2000. The market hit its bubble top in March of that year. It did not bottom until October 2002 even though the FED had been lowering interest rates for quite some time. In 2002 the Federal Government also made a lot of tax changes that were stimulative in nature. The safest time to invest has obviously been long after the yield curve inverts signally an upcoming recession. Sorry for my mistake. RtS

To: Return to Sender who wrote (22880)	4/19/2005 6:20:42 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95617

I'm not going to post anything new here that those of us reading these threads don't already know, but the following is a summary from 2 of our most bearish analyst houses, CSFB and GS(BofA is in their camp too), that was posted on this thread earlier today. From CSFB Message 21244022 << Note that street consensus estimates for front-end stocks still call for 2H sequential EPS growth of 32% H/H and ’06 growth of 42% y/y – versus our expectation that ’06 will decline 10-15% y/y.>> Now that is quite a statement. Since NVLS reports on a FY year that coincides with the CY year, CSFB is saying that growth will decline 10 to 15 percent in 06 compared to 05 - that says falling growth for the next 20 months. <<We are initiating 2006 estimates at $1.25bb (down ~2.7% y/y) and $0.75; street consensus is at $1.53bb and $1.32.>> So CSFB is saying that their revenue estimate is down 280M(-18 percent from present consensus), and their earnings estimate is down 0.57(-43 percent from present consensus estimate). With falling growth for the next 20 months, when do we ever see an increase in stock price? If CSFB is right, not for a long, long time. From GS Message 21245011 <<For the second quarter, Goldman expects Novellus' orders to be down about 5% sequentially due to slower investment by DRAM customers through 2005. The research firm reduced its already-below-consensus 2005 and 2006 earnings-per-share estimates on Novellus to 73 cents and 55 cents, respectively, from 75 cents and 65 cents.>> GS is even more negative than CSFB. Present consensus estimates for NVLS were 0.96 and 1.32. The GS estimates are down from the consensus estimates by -24 and -58 percent respectively. Earnings from 05 of 0.73 to 06 of 0.55 is a reduction of 25 percent. One might ask, where is the growth? And also, at this point, what happens in 07? - further reductions? Maybe the entire semi-equip section will hold a "fire sale" in 06 and just go out of business?