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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (22889)	4/19/2005 8:17:41 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95616

>>Intel Ups CapX by $500M for this year.<< This must be most of the reason, AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, LRCX, etc, are up in the range of 3 to 4 percent tonight in after hours trading. As far as the summer is concerned, many times the market is not a very active place with vacations, etc causing a "lull" in trading. After Labor day is sometimes a time for renewed interest in investing.

To: Kirk © who wrote (22889)	4/19/2005 9:04:47 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Cramer asked Bryant, INTC's CFO about the up Capex - Bryant essentially said that is INTC Specific due to the need to switch to 65nm for dual processor, and he said should not be interpret it as industry-wide scenario, and he particularly said, not everyone has the money to spend ... (and need to spend). He basically agreed with Cramer, in a way, that Capex industry-wide will not go up in the same degree as INTC's forecast. Hence Cramer thanked Bryant for making this clear - and then he reiterates "to ring the registers" on the equipment guys on this run up.

To: Kirk © who wrote (22889)	4/19/2005 9:21:25 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

On Cramer, he keeps saying to sell the AMATs and KLAC's on this news. He is a long term holder of Intel but says get out of tech for the summer, from what I can gather from his gyrations. How many listen to him or how many think like him? Notice what else Cramer said: He said HP, IBM, Dell not doing so good because there are other PC companies in the world that we have not even heard of. So basically Intel sells to everybody and as other markets develop, they still have to buy chips from Intel. Therefore be bullish on Intel only. Sounds reasonable. However, if he uses that logic, then one should be bullish on AMAT, NVLS,KLAC,ASML etc.. Why? These equipment supplies are the principle suppliers worldwide and I don't think there is any big chinese player out there to compete against. It is much easier to start a new PC company than a semi equipment biz. Therefore, my thinking would be that the Intel bullish case should also apply to at least the semi equipment companies. There is enough bearishness on this group. We should get at least a 10% rally near term in this group, imho. If anyone can find errors in my logic, I would like to know.