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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J-L-S who wrote (22911)	4/20/2005 1:55:04 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

well they were correct about 2000; otherwise there is not much similarity between 2001 and the current time or is there? bookings down while chip sales up - perhaps eventually it will sink in that this is one reason why IC sales don't dive (to be specific ASP's)and IC sales (in particular profits = ASP's) will drive capex; and based on Moore IC makers are in unique position to reduce cost a la Moore - that also has not sunk in although the financial community is fretting about a downturn while increasing profit targets for a number of chipmakers. And despite Hickey et al predictions from 9 months ago inventory controls at chip makers level improved significantly What a "simple" chart and "brilliant" at the same time; backend supplier TER reported 14%increase in net orders and backend was the first that reported weakness. home.comcast.net Outlook for Teradyne fuels worry Advanced Auto Parts gains on Baird upgrade By Mark Cotton, MarketWatch Last Update: 4:05 PM ET April 19, 2005 E-mail it \| Print \| Discuss \| Alert \| Reprint \| NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Teradyne Inc. weathered a downgrade from Wells Fargo Securities, prompted by concern that weak new order levels may force the maker of automatic test equipment to lower its outlook when it reports quarterly earnings Tuesday after the market close. Free! Sign up here to receive our Internet Daily e-Newsletter! TRADING CENTER Get 100 Commission-Free Trades> INFORMATION FOR TER: Create an alert for TER Add TER to my portfolio More cool charts on TER Discuss TER NEWS FOR TER Stocks to watch Wednesday: EBAY MOT QCOM Worry over Teradyne outlook sparks downgrade GM, Pfizer, EMC, Viacom, Coca-Cola to steal the show More news for TER TRACK THESE TOPICS My Portfolio Alerts Company: Teradyne, Inc. Add Create Column: The Ratings Game Create Company: Advance Auto Parts Inc Add Create Get breaking news sent directly to your in-box Create a Portfolio \| Create an Alert Teradyne's stock (TER: news, chart, profile) ended up 38 cents, or 3% at $13.09. Analyst Theodore O'Neill cut his rating on the Boston-based company to hold from buy. He said a recent check of its sales channels suggest new order levels had improved "modestly" at the end of March, but not enough to build much backlog. Not helping matters is sluggish semiconductor unit growth, the analyst added. Based on the latest industry data, O'Neill is projecting unit growth of less than 5% in 2005. Teradyne makes equipment to test semiconductors, circuit boards, telephone lines and networks used by equipment makers and phone companies. As a result, O'Neill lowered his second-quarter earnings forecast to a loss of 15 cents a share on revenues of $300 million, compared with a prior estimate of a loss of a penny on revenues of $360 million. The current average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call is for a second-quarter loss of 12 cents a share on revenue of $319 million. "Although we believe a majority of this bad news is already reflected in the stock price, the results may still come as a surprise," said O'Neill. "Our expectation is that the stock may weaken further as earnings are revised downward." He also cut his second-half earnings estimates saying the absence of any significant improvement in backlog will carry over into the rest of the year. Looking ahead to the release of the company's first-quarter results after the bell, the analyst is forecasting a loss of 18 cents a share, a penny better than the First Call average estimate of 19 cents a share. Revenue is expected to come in at $300 million compared with a First Call estimate of 301 million. On a positive note, Teradyne's share could gain some support as business picks up around June, O'Neil said