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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (62318)	4/20/2005 9:26:05 AM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Shades, Sounds like what you need is a new girlfriend or maybe your ex will come back. Sounds like you are well plugged in as far as all the money radio stuff goes. Re: Phil. He's not saying buy BUD now. What he is saying is to buy BUD IF it pops up to 46.12. All his picks are like that: He say buy MSFT @25.20. Usually he has a buy on INTC but right now he does not even though that might have been a good idea as its up 4% premarket on last night's earnings. I have never seen a long pick of his that makes any sense. If the market was to rally BUD would likely go to 46.12 and on good volume but then come right back down again due to all the overhang. I just don't see any reason to even consider these over-owned large caps now even for a swing trade, they are directionless and haven't gone anywhere in years. But he has done much better with his shorts and I think the reason is simple, housing stocks, steel stocks ect. HAVE a direction and that direction is down. I sold some overpriced (I think) GA real estate last year and am about 30% cash now. Back in 2000 I sold every stock and that was a good idea. I'm long a bunch of stuff (financials, big oil, coal, tobacco, some reits, bond funds like FAX, FCO and GIM, two tankers, oil/pipeline royalty, utilities) from 2001-2002 and in all of this stuff I have a comfortable gain and everything I hold "pays its keep" in the way of a dividend. Then in 2003 I began to buy some Canadian Royalty trusts, sold some with a gain and still hold several, though the gain is getting slim on some. Last fall I bought a bunch of MRK at the low and am nervously holding. I also bought a bunch of AAR (American Airlines quarterly intrest bond) on the idea that when Delta and some of the others go broke it will probably help American remain solvent and AAR will pay a big dividend in the meantime. Bought a little BMY and PFE though that may prove to be a screw-up. What I plan to do is to continue to raise cash and WAIT. Sooner or later there will be a big sell-off/bear market. This bull run is already way too long in the tooth. Just wait a while, maybe till 2006 and likely EVERYTHING will be cheaper, like it was in 2002. Then I will start buying some stuff. About VLCCF, I would be careful with that one. I have some I bought in 2001 @17.30 and held it while it went under 10 in 2003. It could go there again. I'm still holding though. I notice it popped big yesterday. But that is exactly the sort of stock you should play for a swing trade, like you did with XOM and not try to swing trade "dog" stocks like BUD. Among other things that is a Venezuala/Chavez stock. If Castro's understudy down there cuts off oil to the US then these big tankers will been needed to bring oil here from Saudi. Slagle