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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (5915)	4/27/2005 1:52:53 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12411

The Chinesse un-pegging could be a terrible event for everyone and especially for China. The 22 April 2005 was significant Fib Forward Time Window for reversal, as well as a 121 day cycle bottom off the last low on 10/25/2004. Also, this time period has favorable astro for a positive move higher in the markets, plus the nature of April and early May are often positive priods for equities as the institional players window dress their accounts. Finally, you would expect stronger volume to have come in on the positive side, which has failed so far so buyers aren't yet commitment... more bears then bulls.... Perfect time to get long. If all these factors can't move the markets higher then I feel there's a good chance that a 4 year high is in place as marked by the March 2005 peak.... and the probabilities have increased for falling prices rather then rising prices. The markets are always 50/50.... where investors push prices is always in question. Finally, if the market cannot rally (which I still expect) then one has to consider that longer term astro and investor psychology is having an effect and increasing the prospects of further market declines. There are still a lot of very positive forces at work, strong economy, strengthening dollar, good housing numbers, low interest rates, modest inflation, good earnings, etc... So are these factors strong enough or is the general investor out look negative...??? There are some indications that this is indeed the case and a top has formed or at least a new trading range is being established. I have not sold my long positions out of the Lows in 2002 and 2003, but getting uneasy. My work shows we are looking at a fulcrum point... and over the last 3 years at these junctures... these indicators have always shown that the markets would recover... and I'm still looking for that event. Lets hope they do....!!!!!!!!!!! Chip