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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (31008)	4/20/2005 7:55:51 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Apr 20 2005 15:35 trotsky (P. Yorkie, 13:02) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved when the Nikkei topped, it had a p/e ratio of 89 - then a world record. when the Nasdaq topped, it had a p/e ratio of nearly 300, but only if you LEFT OUT the money losing companies from the calculation ( with them, its p/e was infinite ) . in other words, there's absolutely nothing special about the Japanese stock market bubble - the US tech stock bubble was FAR worse in every respect. stocks only correlate positively with bonds in TWO of the four possible long wave cycle backdrops: during inflation ( when both go down ) and during DISinflation ( i.e., slowing inflation ) , when both go up. bonds and stocks have decoupled nearly 7 YEARS ago, in the summer of 1998 ( and have gone their separate ways ever since ) . one would think people are used to this by now. it's one of the many little things proving that we're in a deflationary era. as to the foreign CB issue, like i said, there WILL be economic consequences as a result of this Ponzi scheme. but the mechanics of the scheme itself are just routine for your average monetary bureaucrat ( who generally hopes to be in retirement by the time TSHTF ) . that the US, and indeed global, real estate and associated credit bubble will end as an economic catastrophe worse than anything seen since the 1930's is imo beyond even the slightest doubt. it's just as it was with the tech bubble, psychologically. everybody knows deep down that this is a huge disaster in the making, but at the same time everybody is looking for excuses in order to convince themselves that 'this time it's different'. and it is astounding that the Fed's chairman once again helps this process of deception along to the best of his abilities.