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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (48337)4/21/2005 3:23:10 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Respond to of 50167
 
EURUSD - from dailyfx.com

Traders playing the EURUSD definitely faced a rollercoaster ride today. The pair completely reversed its US CPI induced losses to rally for the fourth consecutive trading day. Even though US inflation is on the rise, there is still a concern that the US economy may have hit a soft patch. The euro reversed on news of a surprising decline in oil and gasoline stocks. At this point, it seems like things are really shaping up for a repeat of the mid-2004 slowdown. Rising oil prices, disappointments in corporate profitability, weak payroll growth and contracting retail sales have all made this a viable concern. As a result, although inflation data warrants continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, it does little to sway the central bank to deliver a more aggressive dose of tightening on May 3rd. There is also talk of strong Asian interest in tomorrow's French bond auctions. Although we remain convinced that reserve diversification is inevitable, new problems surfacing in the Eurozone cannot be ignored. Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi resigned this morning following the lack of support in the regional election. This comes in the face of the continued threat of a French no-vote for the new EU constitution. With so much political uncertainty, there is good reason for the Asian nations to wait for more stability before reigniting talk of reserve diversification.

USDCHF

The dollar failed to hold onto its gains despite growing consumer price inflation pressures. Headline consumer prices rose by 0.6% compared to expectations for 0.5% growth. Core prices, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components rose by 0.4% versus expectations for 0.2%, which is also the strongest pace of growth since August 2004. However, to the concern of many analysts, the rise in core prices was mostly confined to higher hotel rates during the earlier Easter holiday. The Beige book echoed the warnings of higher inflation but related most of it to oil and the weaker dollar. According to most of the Districts surveyed, pricing pressures have intensified. Yet these districts also reported concern about the impact of rising energy costs on consumer demand. What this boils down to is that the Fed will still need to raise rates but probably for a longer period of time rather than aggressively. In previous editions of Daily Fundamentals, we have talked about how the Fed has only delivered half point hikes in environments of strong job growth and consumer spending. With both of these lacking for the time being, the Fed will probably shy away from taking the risk of delivering a more aggressive rate hike. US consumers are still feeling very battered by the surge in oil prices and we continue to believe that global growth at this point is dependent on oil. If energy prices continued to rise, it is another detrimental tax on consumers that the Fed has to consider. The opposite is also true, if oil prices continue to pullback, consumers may once again feel liberal about spending, which will give the Fed ample flexibility to tighten as needed.

GBPUSD

The British pound rallied for the fourth consecutive day on little new developments. The latest housing market indicator suggests that the real estate market may have stabilized. Mortgage approvals increased to GBP4.5 billion in March, up from GBP3.5 billion. Over this past 3 days alone, we have received three conflicting housing market releases, which highlights the difficulty that the Bank of England must be facing when trying to figure out exactly where the trend of house prices are headed. Property website Rightmove said that house prices in England rose to a record high in April while in complete contrast, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors reported that house prices fell at a faster pace. Meanwhile in the release of the BoE minutes from the April meeting, the vote remained unchanged with 7 members voting in favor of leaving rates at 4.75% and 2 members voting in favor of a rate hike. Although the central bank noted that the risk of inflation is still to the downside, their meeting came before yesterday's blockbuster inflation report.

USDJPY

The Japanese yen inched higher against the dollar, continuing this week's trend, as investors await industry growth figures to be released tomorrow. On average, analysts expect a contraction of 1.4%. This afternoon's convenience store sales figure indicates same store sales continued their decline in March, falling another 1.4% versus the previous year. Convenience store data often coincides with retail sales numbers, which will be released on April 27th. Last night's Chinese GDP figures put first quarter growth at 9.5%, suggesting China may be pressured to raise interest rates yet again to cool their overheated economy. Japan thrives from Chinese growth as China is Japan's top export destination, so any attempts from Beijing to slow the Chinese economy would likely result in yen-selling pressure. After three weekends of successive demonstrations against Japan, Chinese foreign minister Zhaoxing Li, in an attempt to slow protests, told demonstrators that the government was capable of dealing with Sino-Japanese relationship. Taming these protests will likely ease fears that Chinese consumer boycotts will hurt Japanese export growth.



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (48337)4/21/2005 3:35:14 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Respond to of 50167
 
Pick of the week-The Autumn of the Autocrats, and Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East


The Autumn of the Autocrats
Fouad Ajami

If the assassins of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri sought to make an example of him for his defiance of Syria, the aftermath of the crime has mocked them. For a generation, Lebanon was an appendage of Syrian power. But now the Lebanese people, in an "independence intifada," are clamoring for a return to normalcy. The old Arab edifice of power has survived many challenges in the past, but something is different this time: the United States is now willing to gamble on freedom.
Read
foreignaffairs.org

Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East
Bernard Lewis

To speak of dictatorship as being the immemorial way of doing things in the Middle East is simply untrue. It shows ignorance of the Arab past, contempt for the Arab present, and lack of concern for the Arab future. Creating a democratic political and social order in Iraq or elsewhere in the region will not be easy. But it is possible, and there are increasing signs that it has already begun.
Read Preview
foreignaffairs.org



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (48337)4/21/2005 4:18:58 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Respond to of 50167
 
Worries subside with an inclusive tone- Pope Benedict XVI stressed that he would draw on the work of the Second Vatican Council, the 1962-65 meeting that modernized the church, an issue important to liberals who are wary of Benedict from his time as the powerful enforcer of church doctrine.

Benedict will be fighting that reputation close to home as he tackles one of the biggest challenges: a Europe of empty churches and growing secularism.

And as the world's 1.1 billion Catholics got first hints of where the papacy is headed, followers of other religions weighed the future of interfaith relations. By and large, reactions were hopeful and expectant — an indication of the new standards in reaching out that John Paul set during his 26-year papacy.

"I think he has been very open, so I have no worries about the ecumenical route," said British Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor. "It will continue. No doubt at all."



To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (48337)4/21/2005 7:24:07 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
Vatican

Papal plea for reconciliation
The new pope may not be as divisive as he was as a cardinal



April 20, 2005
iranian.com

PARIS -- As a puritan takes control of the church, it may be actually beginning of a new journey of Cardinal Ratzinger 'Dominus Iesus' fame to Pope Benedict XV 'Pacem Dei munus.'

I was wondering why Cardinal Ratzinger of Germany elected Pope Benedict XVI as his Papal name, it was expected that the next Papa would be John Paul III. After the great term of John Paul II it would have required a lot of guts from a man who lived under his shadow as chief enforcer of puritanical doctrine. Ratzinger has a long record of controversial remarks on Islam, Buddhism, politics, and social issues such as homosexuality.

As a cardinal he has rooted out what he believed is heretical thinking in the books of Catholic theologians and suspended their license to teach in Catholic universities. Joseph Ratzinger, 78, Dean of the College of Cardinals, led the Pope's funeral. He was raised in Bavaria under the shadow of the Nazis and most expect that he will wage a battle against the liberal forces of reform.

The British nun Lavinia Byrne left her religious order after refusing orders from the CDF to pulp her book which discussed the issue of female priests. A church source said yesterday: "Cardinal Ratzinger doesn't want a pope as right wing as Pope John Paul II. He wants a Pope more right wing than Pope John Paul II. There were a lot of things which the Pope chose to do against the wishes of Cardinal Ratzinger."

In 1986 the Pope John Paul II gathered together representatives of all faiths including a North American Indian shaman for a meeting in the Italian town of Assisi. Ratzinger was bitterly opposed to the conference on the grounds that it could promote "relativism" - the philosophy that all religious beliefs are of equal value. In 2000, as prefect of the congregation for the doctrine of the faith (CDF) - the successor to the Inquisition - Ratzinger angered ecumenists and leaders of different faiths when he published a church statement, 'Dominus Iesus', in which it was stated that only the Catholic Church was a genuine church.

What a hard-line Cardinal, but what a u-turn, within minutes of the selection as a Pope, he chooses his name as Pope Benedict XVI, who wrote an encyclical pleading for international reconciliation, Pacem Dei munus and as a Cardinal Chiesa's in association with Rampolla, was the architect of Leo XIII's relatively liberal foreign.

Ensconced in his Papal name is message of u-turn on Puritanism, an olive branch for liberals and peace for the conservative factions of the church, and greater message of reconciliation to the world at large. The new Pope may not be as divisive as he was as a Cardinal.

Artificial contraception has been a bane of the church for hundred of years but AIDS related cases need some definite revivalism. Condoms for AIDS patients may be acceptable in his new papacy. I will not be surprised as I am writing this that new Pope will be a lot different and he will try to stamp his authority on doctrinal matters very early on in his papacy, he is an old man and he will like to leave a legacy.

Papal names reflect 'Papal theological and doctrinal tendencies' that are expected to emerge, by that standard going by Pope Benedict XV name, Cardinal Ratzinger after 20 years of doctrinal work and as "the enforcer of the faith" may be willing to make a new u-turn that of a peace maker, Pope Benedict XVI is a choice name clearly indicating cutting from the shadow of Johan Paul III and will to surface as a fresh individual , today I thought it would be appropriate to revisit his predecessor's life that of Pope Benedict XV; Pope Benedict XV, born Giacomo della Chiesa, (November 21, 1854 -- January 22, 1922) was Pope of the Roman Catholic Church from 1914 to 1922; he succeeded Pope Saint Pius X.

Chiesa was born in Genoa, Italy, of a noble family. He acquired a doctorate of law in 1875, after which he studied for the priesthood and then the training school for the Vatican diplomatic service; most of his career was spent in the service of the Vatican.

Pope Benedict XV (Reign: 1914-1922) Mariano Cardinal Rampolla was a friend and patron, employing him as a secretary on being posted to Madrid and subsequently upon being appointed Secretary of State. During these years Chiesa helped negotiate the resolution of a dispute between Germany and Spain over the Caroline Islands as well as organising relief during a cholera epidemic. When Rampolla left his post with the election of Pius X, and was succeeded by Merry Cardinal del Val, Chiesa was retained in his post.

But Chiesa's association with Rampolla, the architect of Leo XIII's relatively liberal foreign policy and Pius X's rival in the conclave of 1903, the new ultra-conservative regime suspicious of him. He was soon moved out of the diplomatic service and the centre of Church power in Rome, on 16 December 1907 becoming Archbishop of Bologna.

On 25 May 1914 Chiesa was appointed a cardinal and, in this capacity, on the outbreak of World War I -- with the papacy vacant upon Pius X's death on 20 August -- he made a speech on the Church's position and duties, emphasising the need for neutrality and promoting peace and the easing of suffering. The conclave opened at the end of August, and, on 3 September 1914, Chiesa was elected Pope, taking the name of Benedict XV.

His pontificate was dominated by the war and its turbulent aftermath. He organised significant humanitarian efforts (establishing a Vatican bureau, for instance, to help prisoners of war from all nations contact their families) and made many unsuccessful attempts to negotiate peace.

The best known was the Papal Peace proposal of 1917, but both sides saw him as biased in favour of the other and were unwilling to accept the terms he proposed. This resentment resulted in the exclusion of the Vatican from the negotiations that brought about the war's end; despite this, he wrote an encyclical pleading for international reconciliation, Pacem Dei munus. In the post-war period Benedict was involved in developing the Church administration to deal with the new international system that had emerged.

In internal Church affairs, Benedict calmed the excesses of the campaign against supposedly modernist scholars within the Church that had characterised the reign of St. Pius X. He also promulgated a new Code of Canon Law in 1917 and attempted to improve relations with the anticlerical Republican government of France by canonising the French national heroine Joan of Arc. In the mission territories of the Third World, he emphasised the necessity of training native priests to replace the European missionaries as soon as possible.

In his private spiritual life, Benedict was devoted to the Blessed Virgin Mary, and of all the modern Popes was the most fervent in propagating the wearing of the Brown Scapular of Our Lady of Mount Carmel, endorsing the claim that wearing it piously brings "the singular privilege of protection after death" from eternal damnation, and giving an indulgence for every time it was kissed.

Benedict XV died of pneumonia at the age of 67 in 1922. Although one of the less remembered Popes of the twentieth century, he deserves commendation for his humane approach in the world of 1914-1918, which starkly contrasts with that of the other great monarchs and leaders of the time.