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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (27970)	4/21/2005 6:57:43 PM
From: clix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

One thing that is a little disconcerting, if we are seeing -10% QoQ declines with a tight memory environment, what will happen if/when oversupply hits again? What I don't understand is who is driving these ASP declines. If Sandisk and Lexar combined have 2/3 of the flashcard market (at least in the US), and Lexar isn't interested in lower ASPs, who is doing it? Sandisk? Or the other 1/3? Sandisk has said recently that their business model expects 43% YoY ASP declines, 25%-35% annual revenue growth, 35%-40% gross margins, and 20%-24% operating income. They seem to be doing better in terms of margins but not in terms of revenue growth and ASP declines. Still, by any "reasonable" measure, Sandisk seems undervalued now.

To: slacker711 who wrote (27970)	4/22/2005 10:35:50 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

RE: "-10% QoQ declines with a tight memory environment..." The price declines keep it "tight". Good management in acquiring production lines is necessary to avoid "oversupply".

To: slacker711 who wrote (27970)	4/22/2005 11:00:36 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 60323

Let the speculation begin :-).... forbes.com Apple Could Launch New IPod Product In June 04.22.05, 9:36 AM ET Banc of America Securities expects Apple Computer (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) to launch a new iPod product "as early as June" to help stimulate demand and market share. Banc of America assumes that iPod unit shipments decrease to 4.8 million units in the fiscal third quarter ending June from 5.3 million units in the second quarter. The research firm noted that its model incorporates "some seasonal softness" and with flat revenue guidance from Apple's last conference call, "we imagine that investors are looking to flat to slightly down MP3 sales, and strength in CPUs." The firm believes that flash memory-based players are growing faster than drive players. Synaptics (nasdaq: SYNA - news - people ), which provides components for Apple's hard-drive-based iPods, guided to flat revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter ending June, noting softness in their customers' forecasts for the portable music player market. Creative Technology (nasdaq: CREAF - news - people ), the #2 player next to Apple, is projecting sales in the June quarter ranging from flat to up 8% quarter over quarter. "If the Creative forecast proves to be more representative if the market, we will have upside in our iPod units for Apple in the June quarter," Banc of America said.