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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pompsander who wrote (27976)4/22/2005 10:25:23 AM
From: Done, gone.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Merrill reiterates Buy and 30 buck price target...interesting analysis..

Interesting indeed. They just left out the part where SNDK is increasingly likely to see the low 20s before Merrill's target gets hit...

Message 21237635



To: pompsander who wrote (27976)4/22/2005 2:51:58 PM
From: clix  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
From the Merrill report: In addition, the startup costs for Fab 3 will begin to roll into cost of goods sold as early as Q3.

I have been wondering about this. I understand that part of the Flashvision costs are balance-sheet items and part are off-BS. But does anyone here have an understanding of what can be expected exactly? Last November, Sandisk said that its share of the Fab 3 cost would be $1.25B through 2006. Later, it showed some numbers that have 2005 outlays at $600m and 2006 outlays as $700m (of which $240m and $350m, respectively, are off-BS).

How will these outlays manifest themselves? Will the off-BS portions appear as COGS? At a minumum, it seems that significant cash draw-downs will occur.

And, do these fab investments add long-term value to the company? Or are they really a way to disguise a part of the cost of goods?



To: pompsander who wrote (27976)4/22/2005 3:01:13 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
SanDisk’s Q1 revenue of $451 million missed our recently revised estimate of $500 million, largely due to supply constraint of high-capacity cards in the first half of the
quarter.

To: slacker711 who wrote (27825) 4/4/2005 2:56:47 PM
From: etchmeister of 27985

It was a light week for shootout announcements. The hot order of the week was Advantest receiving an order for its T2000 SoC test platform from a global communication company. There is plenty of good news out there. Taiwan and the foundries are getting more optimistic. Japan is more positive as well. There are signs the consumer market is pulling out of its doldrums. Toshiba is pulling in equipment orders, as they are short of Flash capacity. They are actually on a roll in Flash, gaining on Samsung.

that's what vlsiresearch.com had to say last friday



To: pompsander who wrote (27976)4/22/2005 4:15:47 PM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
While we had hoped for higher Q1 sales, improving manufacturing yields
allowed SanDisk to post a record-high product gross margin of 37.2%.

higher manufacturing yields not only mean higher margins - it also means more good dies/units out than expected

largely due to supply constraint
So what is the rootcause for supply constraint?

unfortunately the ML report does not seem to cover this point