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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (62535)	4/22/2005 10:33:05 PM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

TobagoJack, Several years ago you and I exchanged series of posts mostly on the subject of the Philippines. I think you were involved with some Makati office property near to the Peninsular Hotel and were working a project at Boracay maybe around 1991-1992 and I was there in 1990 and again in 1993 and later. Greetings again. I have been posting some stuff and hope I am not a pest. I think Raymond got me started as he posted something I just could not resist meeting with a reply. All in good fun. Now that I have gotten started I love it, its addictive isn't it? Anyway, on the subject of investments: Energyplay and I have exchanged posts on the subject of US carpet stocks, most notably MHK. Energyplay told me that economists consider the US carpet business a classic "industry cluster", it being concentrated geographically as it is. I have had a brainstorm! I believe that by using publicly available information about the US carpet business (70% of which is located in a few towns in North Georgia) a person could determine the state of the US homebuilding business, or at least see whether housing construction is growing or is in a decline. I am short MHK, TOL, CTX and others so I would like to know if I am early or late, right or wrong. Last night MHK reported "lower than expected quarterly earnings" citing raw material and energy costs. I need to find out if actual yardage shipments have peaked also. If they have the housing slowdown is upon us. The raw material cost increase is yarn which is 100% petrochemical, mostly nylon. I worked in the industry for years and still have contacts there. I have some calls in to friends for information now. Carpet data can tell the story on housing. All new houses have floors and all those floors have floor coverings. 65% of the floor covering is carpeting and 86% of that carpet is the tufted broadloom type made in N Georgia by MHK and a few others. Carpet industry volume in 2002 was 1.9 billion square yards. (from S&P). I would guess that MHK may be 20% or more of total industry shipments. Over half of the whole industry is in one small North Georgia county, for which employment, ect. data is available. Carpet is not like lumber, paint, nails ect. There are just a handfull of producers, all concentrated and the #2 producer is a public company, MHK. (#1 was bought by Berkshire Hathaway in 2000). Also, every house built has a pretty predictable amount of carpet, unlike other compontents. There are regional differences in that moer carpet is used in the North than in the extreme south. Very little carpet is exported. Think I am on to something? Let me know. Slagle

To: TobagoJack who wrote (62535)	4/23/2005 8:39:59 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

TJack - SHorting Google -Why, now that the homebuilders are working as shorts ? Why pick one of the few stocks likely to likely to hurt you ? You can't need tax losses....

To: TobagoJack who wrote (62535)	4/23/2005 9:47:25 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

"Should Google actually go to 330/shr, I will double my short position yet again." stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G stockta.com stockta.com I am still looking for a free elliot wave site but my guess is the elliot waves are gonna support a rising GOOG too as far as technicals. General Chen, please my good general - listen to your troops down here in the foxhole - keep your stops - don't let this irrationality take you like it took the boys at KL Financial for 300 million. My AI professor works with these guys - there are things in the works you don't know about - and thier are bankers mixed in with those works and lots of cramers out there gonna send the J6P masses money into this puppy. Please General. The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - 2 other asians forgot that. Imagine my redneck buddies saying gosh darn, GM sucks, but that darn GOOG - I am gonna stick all my beer money in that one like my buddy cramer tells me - YEEHAW 330 here we come - that darn internet will be here long after GM - don't do it Jay - watch out! My redneck buddy is gonna take his 8 citi credit cards and buy more GOOG - why not wait till the technicals come into your favor - why tie up your resources on a short that may take a year or more to be very profitable? Forget the fudamentals and let the technical guide you no? palmbeachpost.com WEST PALM BEACH — Won Sok Lee and John Kim were gamblers at heart, poker players who risked it all at the casino tables in Las Vegas. According to the former trader, Kim, convinced that Sir Isaac Newton had it right, shorted 88,000 shares of GOOGle at $130 a share, meaning it had to fall below that price for the hedge fund to start making money. It didn't. In fact, GOOGle went far the other way. Yet, Kim increased the firm's short position in GOOGle and reworked it so that the target price was $160 a share. The strategy eventually put KL Financial in position to make a profit. But instead of pulling out and taking some profit, the firm hung on, desperately trying to cover earlier losses. General you already seem to be replaying the record that sunk KL - don't let history repeat.