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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Simba who wrote (62632)	4/24/2005 2:07:32 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

True enough Simba. Analogies only stretch so far and of course there are unique features between Taiwan and China. But the essential ingredient is that it's not an intrinsic need for big fish to militarily swallow small in a civilized world. <1. Different political systems > True in both cases. <2. Large dominant China Vs puny Taiwan> NZ is definitely puny and Oz dominant. <3. The current superpower US being obsessed with China's growth and somewhat paranoid about> True and not the case with NZ/Oz. So Taiwan is like an unsinkable forward aircraft carrier for both USA and China, giving control of a geopolitically hot region with billions of people and trillions of dollars swirling around it. In which case it's not about ethics, independence, historical ownership or any of the other blather. It's about real-time, dog eat dog, geopolitical power of USA [and gang] vs China [and gang]. <4. Neighboring powers such as Japan also being paranoid> Rightly so. Though I prefer use of the word fearful. Paranoid is used in place of fearful these days, as though people shouldn't feel fear. Paranoia is irrational fear. China is armed with lots of noocular bombs. They are real and Japan, having already experienced one nuclar war, is understandably fearful about a nuclear-armed belligerent totalitarian state next door. There is some fearfulness in Oz of Indonesia [and perhaps the reverse - Oz was instrumental in supporting East Timorese independence]. <5. US military assistance and presence in Taiwan 6. The history of the formation of Taiwan in its relationship to the Korean war, WWII resolutions etc. 7. Focus in the UN as to who is real China - Taiwan or China> True, those associations and history aren't part of the NZ/Oz deal except that the USA backs Oz, not NZ [due to ANZUS noocular weapons rift]. My analogy doesn't make it over those hurdles. But the NZ/Oz situation could be copied. Make Taiwan independent, like NZ. UN declares both to be real. Yes, there was history in regard to the formation of Taiwan. There's always history. Ignore it. WWII is over. Nearly all the protagonists are dead. <No such tensions in Aus-NZ case. In fact most people do not even worry about the existence of these two nations in the southern hemisphere.> Most people aren't worried about Taiwan/China either. Mimic the NZ/Oz situation and the problems will go away. There might be a bit of oil to sort out between the two, but nothing worth blowing up the world over. Also fishing rights in the area. Mqurice