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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (28561)	4/26/2005 3:28:42 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Here's the new Frankenstein currency product. I love this thing. My only improvement would be to dump the Aussie buck and sub the Singapore currency. But it is composed of Thailand, Taiwan, Korea, India and Aussie currencies, 20% each. With a $10 payoff in 2008 if we're wrong on the BushBuck. biz.yahoo.com The Yuan will be revalued if we can ever get our govt. geeks to stop threatening the Chinese. The surrounding Asian Tigers have artificially low priced currency as they want to sell to China. The Yuan sells at a 16% premium, so some of the revaluation is already present and accounted for. The tiger currencies don't have that premium. Also, 2008 is the year of the Olympics in China. And, Bush's last year. All of which point to a nadir in the Clown Buck.

To: mishedlo who wrote (28561)	4/26/2005 4:20:03 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

If I didn't have such reservations about the $US I might be willing to worry more about the EURO. The only real EURO hedge that I have is a big wad of travelers checks, which I consider as advance payments for meals and hotels in Italy, Spain, Austria, and France. I am quite bullish still on the Canadian dollar (against the $US). If you count shipments of gasoline as well as natural gas and crude oil, they are by far the biggest supplier of energy to the United States. But I am not really enthusiastic about any fiat currency and that means everything including, alas, even the Swiss Franc.

To: mishedlo who wrote (28561)	4/26/2005 5:50:26 PM
From: regli	Respond to of 116555

I think Heinz put it very well today. "the dollar's most fundamental problem is the fact that foreign held dollar claims continue to balloon, lately by nearly $700 billion per annum. so bounces are eagerly awaited by the bagholders who want out...which makes me think that perhaps the widespread expectation that the dollar is due an intermediate term rally is wrong after all. if the DXY breaks below the 80 level, a monumental technical trap-door will be opened. for a while it looked like bearishness on the dollar had become too popular, but that is belied by the speculator futures positions and the REAL contrarian message may be that there is not enough of a sense of crisis...not enough worry about an even bigger slide. " I have decent size holdings in Euros and have been tempted to switch out in both my deposit and FOREX accounts. However, I consider this such a volatile period where a insignificant event can undermine the dollar severely again. In this environment only major or safeheaven currencies like the EU or CHF will show stability.