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To: Shack who wrote (117668)	4/26/2005 10:01:13 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Oh, come on, Shack. It's never simple <g> The triangle could happen, but it assumes too much for me right here. A move down COULD be very bearish... but it could also be a B of 4 for all I know. What's more clear from today, I think, is that we aren't done with down. I agree that we gotta watch the move down when/if it comes and see which stocks, if any, are making new lows. I mentioned earlier that I have the bios at a potential top here, though it's gonna take some time to see if that's the case. The BTK 60 min chart over the last couple weeks could be an ending pattern of a B up, I think... to be followed by a gnarly C down. But again, lotta bios look good here. As for the lower line of this consolidation... some indices (like the SOX) clearly dropped below by the close.

To: Shack who wrote (117668)	4/26/2005 10:12:44 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Respond to of 209892

<<Well for non-tech the simplest and most obvious count here is that the XMI is in a (4) up. >> Using SPX for non-tech, I'd say we've been in a 4 up.....BUT..a (iv) up of 3 down from the high.. I suspect that move has now been completed, and (v) down of 3 down has now been launched . THEN we should have a 4 up (corresponding to the 7 day 2 of late March/early April you mentioned).......and finally 5 down to reach 1060/1090.. (As you may have suspected, no change from chart I posted Sunday........g)

To: Shack who wrote (117668)	4/26/2005 10:29:39 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Respond to of 209892

P.S. Re my SPX count: Wave I down: 1229.11 to 1163.69 = 65.42 points. Wave 3 down to date: 1191.88 to 1126.22 = 55.66 points...NOT ENOUGH!

To: Shack who wrote (117668)	4/26/2005 10:56:03 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

PSS........You know I hate the XMI....g......and I never look at it.....But out of deference to you, I just did.....and I note it looks quite different from my favorite indexes (indices for Freep). You now have a wave 3 exceeding 1 there, and the 5 down could be launching here...........If so, and 5 equals the 1, that would take us back to the Oct lows... Again raises interesting possibility I noted Sunday that we may see lows at different times............with COMPX and your XMI...and DOW with it.... bottoming before the SPX....At the last lows, SPX and COMPX bottomed first, in Aug, with DOW/XMI bottoming in Oct..... Don't know enough about components/weights to figure out all that would mean.....maybe the weak financials weighing on SPX ??? and maybe SOX coming out of the doldrums soon.......and we'll let Freep figure out the role of the bios..... Gotta hit the sack......Play with all this, and give me your definitive reactions/refutations manana....OK?.....<G>