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To: slacker711 who wrote (28075)4/27/2005 9:10:30 AM
From: slacker711  Respond to of 60323
 
DRAMeXchange: eTT prices rebound 13%, mainstream DDR prices may rebound as well, as makers shift to flash production

digitimes.com

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Market Intelligence, DRAMeXchange; Esther Lam, DigiTimes.com [Wednesday 27 April 2005]

Effectively tested (eTT) memory prices enjoyed the strongest growth among all memory pricing, while NAND flash prices fell slightly during April 19 to 25. Despite the April trend of declining mainstream DDR pricing, DRAMeXchange sees a positive outlook for future pricing.

eTT prices rebound 12%

Driven by surging demand from the Chinese market and major module houses and marketers in Taiwan and Hong Kong, eTT memory prices surged nearly 13% from US$1.91-1.93 on April 19 to US$2.15-2.18 on April 25. Sources indicated that rumors of a major module house purchasing bulk amounts of eTT parts has also stimulated the price on concerns of a potential tight supply.

NAND flash market update

Spot prices for mainstream NAND flash slipped slightly. After 8Gbit/4Gbit/2Gbit and 1Gbit were traded at US$59.32, US$32.05, US$18.90 and US$8.57 on April 19, the prices slipped to US$59.23, US$31.80, US$18.90 and US$8.46, respectively, in Asian markets on April 25. Current transactions in the spot market are limited as supply is insufficient and demand is flat, DRAMeXchange reported.

Escalating DDR2 penetration and emerging back-to-school demand to boost DDR prices soon?

Although recording falling DRAM contract prices in the first half of April, DRAMeXchange observed that most marketers have turned positive toward DRAM DDR 256Mbit contract and spot pricing for the following reasons:

More capacity will be allocated for NAND flash production if DRAM prices drop further. Sources indicated that Samsung and Hynix Semiconductor have plans to allocate more DRAM capacity to NAND flash, which should help hold up the downward DDR pricing trend.


In addition, DDR2 output will grow at the expense of DDR. DDR2 penetration will increase as its price premium over DDR has narrowed to 5% and will soon diminish further. DDR2 output, which currently accounts for 20%-25% of current total DRAM output, is expected to increase to 40% in the second quarter. However, mass production of DDR2 and high-density products may be constrained by DDR2’s lower yield rates and tight backend capacity.

DRAMeXchange also forecasts that the downward trend of DDR prices will be limited and some PC OEMs will start building up inventory during the end of the second quarter in anticipation of back-to-school demand. PC OEMs will also build up inventory near the end of the second quarter from a minimum of 2-4 weeks to a maximum of six weeks as the hot season approaches in the third quarter.




To: slacker711 who wrote (28075)4/27/2005 1:35:06 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
RE: "This R&D will move into COGS once the new fab begins producing commercial wafers (no matter how small the quantity)."

R&D stays in R&D and never moves to COGS. That is an accounting truism, so you must have meant something else when you said "R&D will move into COGS".