David, I am almost certain that the dif. bet. the two figures is due to rounding error since those Year End population is rounded to 10,000, and the birth and death rate were rounded to 2 decimal points only. And I calculated the dif. bet. the two figures, the majority of them are less than 5 per 1,000, so it is in a normal range. The numbers bet. 1960 and 1964 were messy, but that should be expected since the migration among dif. provinces was huge during that period so there was many uncounted people.
>>What are they based on? There would only be a census every 5 or 10 years, no? Or did they try to count the population every year? Maybe based on residence registration numbers?<<
Those numbers were indeed from residence registration only since China has so far only had 5 Census (1953, 1970,1980,1990 and 2000). And the 1953 one was actually not census but based on sampling only (I am not sure what was the sample size), which perhaps not that accurate to start with. After 1953 and before 1970, China has not officially done any counting of its pop. After 1970, there is usally a sample in 5th year, just like the US.
Total Crude Crude Natural TFR
Pop. birth death increase
Year rate rate rate New Births Deaths Total Pop.
(10 000) (‰) (‰) (‰) Should be
1949 54167 36 20 16 6.14 (‰) difference
1950 55196 37 18 19 5.81 19,500,120 10,833,400 550,336,720 -2.94
1951 56300 37.8 17.8 20 5.7 20,422,520 9,935,280 562,447,240 -0.98
1952 57482 37 17 20 6.47 21,281,400 10,021,400 574,260,000 -0.97
1953 58796 37 14 23 6.05 21,268,340 9,771,940 586,316,400 -2.80
1954 60266 37.97 13.18 24.79 6.28 21,754,520 8,231,440 601,483,080 -1.95
1955 61456 32.6 12.28 20.32 6.26 22,883,000 7,943,059 617,599,941 4.95
1956 62828 31.9 11.4 20.5 5.85 20,034,656 7,546,797 627,047,859 -1.96
1957 64563 34.03 10.8 23.23 6.41 20,042,132 7,162,392 641,159,740 -6.92
1958 65994 29.22 11.98 17.24 5.68 21,970,789 6,972,804 660,627,985 1.04
1959 67207 24.78 14.59 10.19 4.3 19,283,447 7,906,081 671,317,366 -1.12
1960 66207 20.86 25.43 -4.57 4.02 16,653,895 9,805,501 678,918,393 25.45
1961 65859 18.02 14.24 3.78 3.29 13,810,780 16,836,440 659,044,340 0.69
1962 67295 37.01 10.02 26.99 6.02 11,867,792 9,378,322 661,079,470 -17.64
1963 69172 43.37 10.04 33.33 7.5 24,905,880 6,742,959 691,112,921 -0.88
1964 70499 39.14 11.5 27.64 6.18 29,999,896 6,944,869 714,775,028 13.88
1965 72538 37.88 9.5 28.38 6.08 27,593,309 8,107,385 724,475,924 -1.25
1966 74542 35.05 8.83 26.22 6.26 27,477,394 6,891,110 745,966,284 0.73
1967 76368 33.96 8.43 25.53 5.31 26,126,971 6,582,059 764,964,912 1.68
1968 78534 35.59 8.21 27.38 6.45 25,934,573 6,437,822 783,176,750 -2.75
1969 80671 34.11 8.03 26.08 5.72 27,950,251 6,447,641 806,842,609 0.16
1970 82992 33.43 7.6 25.83 5.81 27,516,878 6,477,881 827,748,997 -2.62
1971 85229 30.65 7.32 23.33 5.44 27,744,226 6,307,392 851,356,834 -1.09
1972 87177 29.77 7.61 22.16 4.98 26,122,689 6,238,763 872,173,926 0.46
1973 89211 27.93 7.04 20.89 4.54 25,952,593 6,634,170 891,088,423 -1.15
1974 90859 24.82 7.34 17.48 4.17 24,916,632 6,280,454 910,746,178 2.37
1975 92420 23.01 7.32 15.69 3.57 22,551,204 6,669,051 924,472,153 0.29
1976 93717 19.91 7.25 12.66 3.24 21,265,842 6,765,144 938,700,698 1.63
1977 94974 18.93 6.87 12.06 2.84 18,659,055 6,794,483 949,034,572 -0.74
1978 96259 18.25 6.25 12 2.72 17,978,578 6,524,714 961,193,864 -1.45
1979 97542 17.82 6.21 11.61 2.75 17,567,268 6,016,188 974,141,080 -1.31
1980 98705 18.21 6.34 11.87 2.24 17,381,984 6,057,358 986,744,626 -0.31
1981 100072 20.91 6.36 14.55 2.63 17,974,181 6,257,897 998,766,284 -1.95
1982 101654 22.28 6.6 15.68 2.87 20,925,055 6,364,579 1,015,280,476 -1.24
1983 103008 20.19 6.9 13.29 2.42 22,648,511 6,709,164 1,032,479,347 2.33
1984 104357 19.9 6.82 13.08 2.35 20,797,315 7,107,552 1,043,769,763 0.19
1985 105851 21.04 6.78 14.26 2.2 20,767,043 7,117,147 1,057,219,896 -1.22
1986 107507 22.43 6.86 15.57 2.42 22,271,050 7,176,698 1,073,604,353 -1.36
1987 109300 23.33 6.72 16.61 2.59 24,113,820 7,374,980 1,091,808,840 -1.09
1988 111026 22.37 6.64 15.73 2.31 25,499,690 7,344,960 1,111,154,730 0.81
1989 112704 21.58 6.54 15.04 2.25 24,836,516 7,372,126 1,127,724,390 0.61
1990 114333 21.06 6.67 14.39 2.17 24,321,523 7,370,842 1,143,990,682 0.58
1991 115823 19.68 6.7 12.98 2.01 24,078,530 7,626,011 1,159,782,519 1.34
1992 117171 18.24 6.64 11.6 — 22,793,966 7,760,141 1,173,263,825 1.33
1993 118517 18.09 6.64 11.45 — 21,371,990 7,780,154 1,185,301,836 0.11
1994 119850 17.7 6.49 11.21 — 21,439,725 7,869,529 1,198,740,197 0.20
1995 121121 17.12 6.57 10.55 — 21,213,450 7,778,265 1,211,935,185 0.60
1996 122389 16.98 6.56 10.42 — 20,735,915 7,957,650 1,223,988,266 0.08
1997 123626 16.57 6.51 10.06 — 20,781,652 8,028,718 1,236,642,934 0.31
1998 124810 16.03 6.5 9.53 — 20,484,828 8,048,053 1,248,696,776 0.48
1999 125909 15.23 6.46 8.77 — 20,007,043 8,112,650 1,259,994,393 0.72 |
