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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (23029)	4/28/2005 10:20:31 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95738

>> Here is another one for today. WFR missed EPS mark by 0.01(0.23 instead of 0.24) and the stock is being "hammered". Don, I think the market is just demonstrating the validity of an observation you had made a while back. When the institutional script calls for selling, all news leads to selling. When the script calls for buying, then the converse. So I'll contribute some added value to your model. We should have been able to discern that the script had shifted to "sell" back in march. Remember when Carl Johnson posted a few notes about a "slowdown" ? Well at the time I thought "what slowdown? He's totally wrong". That was a self-defeating response. Instead, the correct response should have been to see that phantom slowdown was just the excuse of the day (same as the phantom wmd, in another context). The "slowdown" talk was just code-speak for "script has shifted to sell-mode". Instead, like an idiot, I loaded up on Seagate, thinking that since I was sure it would exceed all estimates, that the stock would go up. Instead, it exceeded all estimates, by a mile, and the stock is going down anyway. Next time, I'll be prepared. Sarmad

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (23029)	4/28/2005 10:36:08 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95738

VSEA, on the other hand both beat and raised estimates. 04/28/2005 04:55:28 PM StreetInsider Alert for VSEA Apr 28, 2005 (streetinsider.com via COMTEX) --Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc (Nasdaq: VSEA) reported Q2 EPS of $0.30, 2 cents better than estimates. Revenues came in at $139.1 million versus the consensus of $133.89 million. Sees Q3 EPS of $0.45-$0.53 verusus the consensus of $0.32. investing-news.com finance.yahoo.com And the stock rose over 6% on the news after hours. But lets face facts... Until the market put in all the historical hallmarks of a real market bottom institutional investors probably won't be backing our beliefs in this sectors long term growth prospects. They treat treat the stocks in this sector as a cyclical playground. And for now the kids are playing somewhere else. RtS