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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (5291)	4/29/2005 1:03:35 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

RE: "... I sold a few shares at $30... but I really didn't expect it to return to under $25 again..." I don't understand how you can have any real expectations. There are uncertainties in the geopolitical situation and the macroeconomic situation. The semiconductor industry doesn't have the traditional cycles and the market has not come up with any model for industry valuations. The analyst community is working one quarter at a time and has no clue about what a quarterly up or down move means. The old price to book ratios that marked cycle bottoms are not useful any more because there is no reliable cycle peak anywhere on the horizon. Is the industry cyclical, growth, or cyclical growth? Are some companies cyclical and others growth? Will consolidation eliminate many smaller players and some bigger ones? Why do I persist on investing in these companies? Feel free to present answers to any or all questions.

To: Kirk © who wrote (5291)	5/2/2005 12:41:50 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

I think LRCX and the market will work its way lower this year, the GM's and Ford's of the world are one of the first shots across the bow. The consumer is in debt up to their eyeballs, and are now seeing their net positive monthly dollar be soaked away by higher energy prices, higher interest rate expense and inflation in general. Housing bubbles in California, Florida, Las Vegas etc are like the internet boom of the late 1990's, rampant speculation fueled by Al "Easy money" Greenspan. Interest rates are still below the inflation rate, so extreme accomodation is still present. What happens when rates get to "normal" as in 2% or more above the inflation rate? What happens to the ARMs that people hold? What about the stretched consumer that because of extreme home price appreciation has to use an interest-only loan to purchase a house. Risks abound, IMHO. The U.S. is the "uber-consumer" for the world, Japan and the Euro-zone are weakening again, the fundamental question for the world economy is who is going to buy all those goods and services when the American consumer finally gets tapped out, which I think is in short order. Semis and CAPEX are cyclical and we are entering a cyclical downturn for the global economy, LRCX and the rest won't be spared, just like they haven't been spared in the past. Once revs and earnings head down, those low ratios won't look so low anymore. LRCX's move to $30 was a gift, here we are back at $25, what's next $30 again or $20? I'm not short or long, 100% Money Market, there will be a time to buy or be long, it just isn't now, IMHO. A-M-S