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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (681080)4/29/2005 1:17:33 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Respond to of 769670
 
A very different Europe if the French vote 'non'

GEORGE KEREVAN

I HAVE a dear friend in Paris who is, among other things, the best cook in the world. As it happens, Ingre is a lifelong socialist. She is also a devoted European who sees the EU as the only bulwark against George Bush, McDonald’s and similar American attempts to undermine civilisation. So it came as something of a shock to discover that Ingre is campaigning fervently for a "Non" in next month’s French referendum on the EU constitution.

This referendum is actually a good deal more important than our own interminable general election. For if the French electorate responds as current polls suggest - and as Ingre is hoping - the new constitution will bite the dust. It only takes one EU member to vote "no" for the whole project to be scrapped. And if that happens, we will find ourselves living in a very different Europe.

So why are those of the Gallic Left - normally avid pro-Europeans like my friend - so opposed to the new constitution? Especially as it is the work of the former French president, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing. And particularly since it is berated with equal fervour by British Eurosceptics as a wicked EU plot designed in Paris.

French public antipathy to the constitutional treaty is influenced by a desire to punish President Chirac. The heavily regulated French economy is in the doldrums, with unemployment stuck at over 10 per cent. Chirac has waffled about introducing market reforms, but the pampered French middle class and trade unions are opposed, with the result that the massive borrowing required to maintain France’s generous public services has finally busted the EU’s fiscal stability rules.

The French want to have their economic cake and eat it, but they can’t have jobs without reform, nor can they live on tick forever. However, Chirac is not statesman enough to stand up to the French mob. So he dissembles - provoking the ire of the leftists, who see a "No" vote in the referendum as a way of dealing him a bloody nose, much as they destroyed General de Gaulle in a referendum back in 1969.

But there is more to French antipathy to the constitution than a dislike of Chirac. There is an issue about the future direction of the EU itself.

The genesis of the constitutional treaty is a need to manage an unwieldy European Union of 25 members, and rising. In practical terms, that means a strengthened European foreign policy - long a French policy desire - through the creation of the post of an EU foreign minister. It also includes a "charter of fundamental rights". Most of these turn out to be dirigiste French rights to full employment and state welfare, as a way of stopping new, pro-market EU members from exploiting their economic advantages.

On this basis, the French should be happy. But there is more. The new constitution assumes that the EU will go on growing, diluting French influence and even opening the prospect of Turkish membership in the near future. The French Right, from the neo-fascists led by Jean-Marie Penn to Chirac’s own Union for a Popular Majority, are adamantly against a Muslim country such as Turkey joining the EU. (And coincidentally giving the EU a common border with Iraq.)

And both Left and Right in France are unhappy with the new voting mechanism offered in the constitution for deciding EU affairs. This undercuts French authority and opens the prospect - however distant - that someday the Brits and the East European members might gang up to impose "Anglo-Saxon" free-market policies on the EU. This might sound far-fetched to you and me, but even Germany is ripe for a Thatcherite revolution, tipping the balance towards the Anglo-Saxon model. In which case, half a century of French political manoeuvring to use the EU both as a captive market and a diplomatic stepladder will be in ruins. France would be a second-division nation again.

However, I’m still not convinced the French will actually pull the trigger and vote "non": they have too much to lose in the short term by plunging the only EU they’ve got into chaos. But what happens if they do?

Chirac would bow to domestic pressure and veto any chance of Turkish membership (thus destabilising the eastern Mediterranean). He would also use French leverage to try to block more free-market reforms in the Union. Already, the French and Germans have seen off a Commission directive to liberalise trade in services - a deliberate ploy to protect their economies from the nimbler new EU economies to the east.

But a protectionist agenda for the EU is a time-bomb for France. It would sow dissension in the EU, actually helping to cement the long-needed free-market reform bloc among members. This would be aided by the fact that the confusion caused by the death of the constitutional treaty would probably derail preparations for the next EU budget - which is bad news for the poorer EU states.

THE French would also doubtless seek piecemeal constitutional reforms, such as proceeding with appointing an EU foreign minister. Or they might go for broke and offer the Germans a side deal to create their own fast-track political alliance (perhaps in concert with Spain and the Benelux countries). Either way, this would be viewed with deep enmity by other EU members.

The political crisis arising from a "no" vote would have an impact in another area that no-one has given much thought to - the euro. Recently, the euro has been rising in value against the dollar. Market confidence in the new currency is also reflected in the fact that excessive borrowing by France and Germany has not led the financial markets to demand a higher interest-rate premium on that debt - clearly, lenders believe they will get their money back. Even basket-case economies such as Greece can borrow in euros at tiny interest rates. Will this last if the EU constitution goes pear-shaped?

The bellwether will be the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. To date, it has been politically docile and has kept interest rates low. But what if the EU becomes a more factious alliance? The financial markets will then need to feel confident that the ECB will be strong-willed and politically independent. If it becomes a political toady of some Paris-led clique, all bets are off. Watch the interest-rate premium on Greek government bonds go skywards and then watch the Greeks abandon the euro for the inflationary drachma. And if countries start bailing out of the eurozone, that will destabilise the whole eurozone economy.

What does all this mean for the UK? A French "no" might actually set the scene for a proper redirection of the EU towards serious economic reforms and a less anti-American foreign policy.

But it would allow Mr Blair, after 5 May, to drop his plans for an obviously redundant British referendum. Such a vote was always the likely high watermark for Tony Blair. If he lost, he would be the automatic sacrificial lamb, making way for G Brown. If he won, it would allow him to retire in a blaze of glory.

But the French might still afford Houdini Blair the opportunity to cancel his date with destiny in 2006.

Just think: if the French vote "Non", the biggest local consequence might be that we get stuck with Tony for another four years.

news.scotsman.com



To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (681080)4/29/2005 2:44:12 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Respond to of 769670
 
kennyboy lost his SHORTS today --used the newspaper to cover UP???



To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (681080)4/29/2005 2:45:39 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Respond to of 769670
 
2:00PM: Stocks continue to trade at improved levels ... Meanwhile, the Materials (+2.0%) sector continues to pace the way higher with gains being witnessed across the board... Forest Products (+4.6%) has been the best performing S&P group, amid strength in Weyerhaeuser (WY 69.76 +4.32) after Franklin Mutual Advisers reported a 7.1% stake in the company... Gold (+2.9%), Diversified Chemicals (+2.4%) and Diversified Metals (+1.7%) have also surged, largely as a result of dollar weakness against the yen (104.85)...
The yen has surged after a Chinese state-sponsored newspaper reported the government may let the yuan float freely at anytime - even as early as this weekend... NYSE



To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (681080)4/29/2005 6:52:11 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769670
 
kennyboy: your question on market of the week ??? is it too early to jump the gun ???
Stocks Rally in Afternoon Trading
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 5:52 p.m. ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street ended a volatile week with a big advance Friday as oil prices tumbled below $50 per barrel and jittery investors took solace in a pair of economic reports that eased their inflation concerns. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 122 points for the session, but the major indexes finished the week mixed.

A late selloff in crude futures helped Wall Street solidify its gains in an otherwise uncertain session. A barrel of light crude settled at $49.72, down $2.05, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest level since Feb. 18. Oil prices began the week above $55 per barrel.

The buying was further buoyed by economic data that showed prices and labor costs remained in check. The Commerce Department reported a 0.5 percent increase in income and a 0.6 percent hike in spending for March, and the Labor Department said labor costs for businesses were falling. Both are key inflation readings which bode well for interest rates and the economy.

''I think it's well recognized that oil is one of the risk factors in the economic picture, and this drop is helping the market,'' said Richard Rippe, chief economist for the Prudential Equity Group. ''A decline is both beneficial to the inflation outlook and prospects for demand and growth. Oil prices are still high, no mistaking that. But it helps.''

The Dow rose 122.14, or 1.2 percent, to 10,192.51.

Broader stock indicators also moved sharply higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 13.63, or 1.2 percent, at 1,156.85, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 17.47, or 0.9 percent, to 1,921.65.

Bonds dropped after Thursday's rally, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising to 4.20 percent from 4.15 percent late Thursday. The dollar fell against most major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Despite the gains, the market finished the week mixed, with the Dow up 0.34 percent, the S&P gaining 0.41 percent and the Nasdaq losing 0.55 percent.

Analysts attributed the market's volatile day-to-day swings to nervousness over Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is expected to raise the nation's benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 percent, but Wall Street was more interested in the Fed's take on the economy.

''Investors are very anxious to see if the Fed is going to become more aggressive in its inflation talk,'' said Peter Cardillo, chief strategist and senior vice president at S.W. Bach & Co. ''There's been a lot of damage done over the past few weeks, and until we get a new catalyst that can reverse this market sentiment, it's going to be touch and go.''

Investors hope that a bullish report could lift the market out of its April slump. For the month, the Dow fell 2.96 percent, the S&P lost 2.01 percent and the Nasdaq tumbled 3.88 percent.

Microsoft Corp. gained 85 cents to $25.30, lifting the Dow Jones industrials as the software company doubled its quarterly net income from a year ago, though revenue fell short of Wall Street's expectations. The company gave a stronger-than-expected profit outlook as well.

Retailers sold off after the University of Michigan's consumer confidence report showed a larger-than-expected drop in consumers' optimism about the economy. Wall Street feared that shopping and big-ticket tech spending could be curtailed by cautious consumers.

Online retailers led the declines, as Amazon.com Inc. shed 16 cents to $32.36, Shopping.com Inc. dropped 23 cents to $13.15, and online delivery service Provide Commerce Inc. tumbled 31.3 percent, or $8.03, to $17.65 after a particularly disappointing earnings report. The weakness spread to bricks-and-mortar retailers. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. fell to a new 52-week low during the session, but managed to close 9 cents higher at $47.14.

A report in the Daily Deal newspaper said Oracle Corp. was in possible takeover talks with Siebel Systems Inc., a fellow software developer. The news sent Siebel shares rising 41 cents to $9, while Oracle slipped 6 cents to $11.56.

Sun Microsystems Inc. climbed 5,2 percent, or 18 cents, to $3.62 after a published report said the high-end computer company was discussing a leveraged buyout with private equity firm Silver Lake Partners.

A day after disappointing earnings from Exxon Mobil Corp., ChevronTexaco Corp. also reported modest profits that failed to meet Wall Street's expectations. Income grew just 4 percent, despite soaring crude prices, and the company missed analysts' forecasts by 10 cents per share. ChevronTexaco nonetheless rose 85 cents to $52, while Exxon Mobil Corp. gained $1.03 to $57.03 after falling 4.1 percent Thursday.

Medical supplier Cardinal Health Inc. added 56 cents to $55.57 after posting a 15 percent drop in profits from a year ago due to higher costs and restructuring charges. Revenues were strong however, and the company still beat Wall Street's expectations by a penny per share after charges.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by nearly 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where preliminary consolidated volume came to 2.39 billion shares, compared with 2.2 billion on Thursday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was up 4.36, or 0.8 percent, at 579.38.

Overseas, Japan's markets were closed Friday for a national holiday. In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.24 percent, France's CAC-40 edged 0.01 percent higher for the session, and Germany's DAX index climbed 0.16 percent.

^------

The Dow Jones industrials ended the week up 34.80, or 0.34 percent, finishing at 10,192.51. The S&P 500 index gained 4.73, or 0.41 percent, to close at 1,156.85.

The Nasdaq fell 10.54, or 0.55 percent, during the week, closing Friday at 1,921.65.

The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller company stocks, closed the week 10.15, or 1.72 percent, lower at 579.38.

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended the week at 11,363.52, up 26.21 points from last week. A year ago the index was at 10.793.66

^------

On the Net:

New York Stock Exchange: nyse.com

Nasdaq Stock Market: nasdaq.com



To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (681080)4/29/2005 8:06:15 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Respond to of 769670
 
For Democrats, judicial philosophy is a cultural Armageddon. Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy have turned the Senate into a Branch Davidian compound. No one in the liberal cult is allowed to leave, including the hostage nominees--unless they recant their conservatism. How many Senate Democrats plan to be in this bunker when Bill Frist's ATF squad detonates the "nuclear option"?