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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (24318)	4/29/2005 2:50:07 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108962

>> Considering that >55 oil was not much help to gold, I suspect <50 oil won't hurt POG much at all. << I disagree there. Just yesterday when the oil build came in signficantly above expectations gold got slammed w/oil. There isn't a significant correlation, but one does still exist. Oil has been responsible for the higher CPI, PPI and to an extent trade imbalance numbers. With respect to commodities and gold it's not a requirement, just something that seems likely. Lots of money tied up in carry trades w/commodities. I think many trade commodities and gold separate, but there's enough that probably go long both that as the commodity trades unwind gold could get hit further. PMs stocks are forecasting this, but metal holders are more determined I guess. We'll see who wins. If China does revalue and every single gold stock spikes up 10%+ (unlikely imho), many would still be very cheap IT and LT. Why buy now? Conversely POG appears to be pricing in China to an extent. When was the last time China did as they were expected? How much will POG get hit? I think there's a good chance POG will get hit $10-15+ next week on lack of China news, oil going below $50 and Fed. JMHO.