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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jennifersilversun who wrote (31444)	4/29/2005 11:54:53 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

softwarenorth.net bearmarketcentral.com cftc.gov commitmentsoftraders.com

To: jennifersilversun who wrote (31444)	4/30/2005 3:25:13 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

Typically in commodity trades the "commercials" are either commodity producers or institutions designated to trade for commodity producers. They are by definition "long" the underlying commodity in question (i.e., it is what they produce) as a baseline position. In the case of gold, the commercials are the miners or those who they designate to deal their production, the so-called "bullion banks". JPM is one large institution that runs such an operation, there are many others.

To: jennifersilversun who wrote (31444)	4/30/2005 3:40:49 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The commercials are the gold dealers, mines, and banks that deal in gold. The rest of us speculate about what is going on in their business. Based on how much gold they are selling (shorting is how they sell the gold they produce or deal in) at this price: a. business must be slow so they are selling as much at current prices as they possibly can without collapsing the price, or b. they expect business to be slow in the future. A lot of things could contribute to a slowdown in the gold business like: 1. Tsunamis and other natural disasters (bird flu etc) in Asia 2. Fewer gold watches sold at Tiffany's 3. Slow down in manufacturing of other products that use gold I think it's very possible for gold price to collapse of the weight of so much forward selling. In fact during this bull run from $250 gold has corrected every time the commercials got huge short compared to speculators. My view is that the whole world economy is soon to collapse because the reality is there is too much debt, so this time the gold price could go down along with the stock market. gold stock prices are probably in a bubble like everything else m