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To: Roebear who wrote (24358)	4/30/2005 12:07:08 PM
From: c.hinton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108962

from the BBC Q&A: French EU referendum on 29 May. The Non campaign is a grassroots movement without a figurehead French voters will go the polls for a national referendum on the EU constitution on 29 May. Here the BBC News website explains what is happening and what is at stake for France and the European Union. What is the most likely outcome? Numerous opinion polls since mid-March have suggested that the result will be Non. Most put the No camp about 10% ahead. The Yes camp, which includes the government, the president, and the leaders of the two main political parties, must be hoping they can persuade undecided voters - about a third of the total - to take their side. However, there is not much time left. Why are so many voters thinking of voting No? One reason is that the government and president are unpopular - unemployment is running at 10% and the economy is in the doldrums. Two EU policies have also caused alarm: (a) a plan to start membership talks with Turkey later this year, and (b) a proposal to allow EU countries with low labour costs to provide services cheaply in richer EU countries. As for the constitution itself, some French voters fear it will create an ultra-free market economy within the EU, undermining traditional French levels of social protection. Do voters know what the constitution says? QUICK GUIDE The EU constitution Two-thirds of respondents in one poll in April described themselves as poorly informed. Of those, seven out of 10 said they would vote No. High levels of ignorance were also recorded when Spanish voters backed the constitution in a referendum in March. Who is heading the No campaign? It is a grassroots movement without a dominant figurehead. A number of prominent Socialist Party members, including deputy leader Laurent Fabius, are defying the party leadership by backing a No vote. The Communist Party and the Communist newspaper L'Humanite, and part of the union movement are also in the No camp. On the right, eurosceptic nationalists such as Jean-Marie Le Pen are against the constitution, and there are some rebels within the (pro-European) governing centre-right party, the UMP. Polls suggest that six out of 10 No-voters are left of centre. Among respondents who describe themselves as working class, 75% say they will vote No. What will happen if France votes No? The constitution, which is a treaty between 25 states, cannot come into force unless it is ratified by all of them. So a French No would mean the constitutional treaty is dead - unless perhaps France votes again and says Yes second time round, as Ireland did with the Nice treaty. Experts say it is more likely that EU leaders will attempt to salvage key parts of the constitution. Some measures could be implemented simply as a result of agreements between heads of state, or possibly between the various EU institutions (such as the Commission, Council of Ministers and Parliament). It would also be possible to take some measures from the constitution and tack them onto existing treaties - though changes to these treaties may still need to be put to a referendum in some countries, such as Denmark and Ireland. French President Jacques Chirac has warned voters that France's influence in the EU will be severely weakened if they reject the constitution. However, one possibility is that the failure of the constitution would stimulate the creation of a "core" group of countries, including France, that would seek to integrate more quickly and deeply than the rest. What will happen if France votes Yes? The constitution will have survived one serious test, but it will still face tricky referendums in the Netherlands, Poland, the Czech Republic, Denmark and the UK. A low turnout is widely expected in the Netherlands on 1 June, and a Yes vote in France could motivate Dutch No-voters to turn out in larger numbers. If a broadly eurosceptic country like Denmark or the UK rejected the constitution it might not give the EU such a powerful shock as a No in one of the six original founding states, such as France or the Netherlands. However, it would still prevent the constitution becoming law - unless either country decided to withdraw from the EU, which is unlikely. Would the EU be able to manage without a constitution? Yes, it would just continue operating on the existing set of rules. However, many experts say the failure of the constitution would cause a grave crisis within the union, leaving it divided, confused and unable to proceed for a time with any of its more ambitious projects.

To: Roebear who wrote (24358)	4/30/2005 12:10:10 PM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 108962

French Supporters of EU Constitution Overtake Opponents in Poll April 30 (Bloomberg) -- French voters planning to endorse the European Union constitution in a referendum May 29 regained the lead against opponents of the proposed treaty for the first time in more than a month, a poll by TNS-Sofres showed. Fifty-two percent of the 1,000 people surveyed April 27-28 backed the constitution, up from 45 percent in a previous Sofres poll held April 15-18. Opponents of the treaty fell to 48 percent from 55 percent. Twenty-four percent didn't express an opinion, the Sofres poll for Unilog SA, LCI, RTL and Le Monde showed. ``The question of France weakening when it comes to the case for a `No' success is being somewhat echoed in public opinion,'' Brice Teinturier, Sofres's director of political studies, said in a statement on the company's Web site. President Jacques Chirac has warned that France will lose influence in Europe should the country of 62 million reject the constitution. The legislation is designed to streamline the way decisions are reached following the European Union's expansion to 25 nations last year and needs to be ratified by all members. EU officials worked for 2 1/2 years preparing the laws, which would appoint a permanent president for the bloc and give the region its first foreign minister. A Frenchman, former President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, put together the first draft. The referendum will be the last nationwide vote before presidential and legislative elections in 2007 and comes amid dissatisfaction with Chirac's government and a failure to lower unemployment, which stands at 10.2 percent, a five-year high. Narrow Vote Chirac, 72, hasn't said whether he'll seek a third mandate in 2007. His party, Union for a Popular Movement, lost regional and European elections last year. France, one of the EU's six founding members, narrowly voted in favor of adopting the euro in 1992. The French approved the Maastricht Treaty, which introduced monetary union, by 51 percent to 49 percent against. Francois Hollande, the leader of the main opposition party, the Socialist Party, is also calling for the adoption of the EU constitution, alongside several opposition figures including former Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, former finance minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and Martine Aubry, who designed the 35-hour week legislation as Jospin's labor minister. Oopponents include former Socialist Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, leaders of the Communist Party, the anti-immigrant National Front of Jean-Marie Le Pen, nationalist leader Philippe de Villiers, and anti-globalization activists such as Jose Bove. Sixty-three percent of those polled by Sofres said they're sure of their vote, almost equally split between supporters and opponents. Thirteen percent said they can still change their mind, and 24 percent didn't express an opinion. ``We're in an uncertain configuration,'' said Teinturier. Sofres interviewed people at home, using a sample of people representative of the voting population. __________________________________________________________ I never thought a YES vote was in doubt, from France. I grant that it was smart and savvy to have concerns about it, and get positioned for it, but I've always figured when it comes to pulling the trigger, the French will not choose the "blow it all up" option. LP