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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (31473)	4/30/2005 6:17:07 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

THE STOCK MARKET'S RECENT LOSSES inspire little confidence in the bull's continued health or the economy's prospects. After two months of selling, the Dow Jones Industrials and Standard & Poor's 500 stock index are down about 5% each in 2005, while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 11%. "People keep waiting for a big recovery and it's not happening," laments Van Harissis, a portfolio manager at Champlain Investment Partners in Burlington, Vt. "It's time to be careful." Very careful. Harissis, for one, expects the Dow to end the year at 9,700, down 5% from current levels. The S&P could fall 8% to 1060 in 2005, he says, while the Nasdaq could backtrack 6%, to 1800. Meanwhile, as stocks tumble, the price of gold, now $434 an ounce, could soar to $650, rendering the precious metal an equally precious refuge in uncertain times. As Harissis' outlook suggests, investors are girding for tougher times. Only 38% of the portfolio managers responding to the latest Barron's Big Money poll call themselves bullish or very bullish about the U.S. stock market's prospects through year end. That's the lowest bullish reading since the spring of 1999, and it also marks the first time U.S. equities have proved less popular than Asian stocks, about which half the managers feel bullish. A year ago, 61% of the managers were upbeat about U.S. stocks, while 56% remained bullish last fall. At least today's fans expect stocks to mount a spirited rally in the months ahead. On average, the bulls predict the Dow will end the year at 11,367, which would represent a gain of 12% from Friday's close. But they're wary of the longer term, and see stocks rising only 4.4% in the first half of 2006. As the percentage of bulls has shrunk, the bears' ranks have grown. Nearly 22% of respondents now describe themselves as bearish or very bearish about the market, up from 12% percent last spring and 17% last fall. The bears expect the major indexes to end the year modestly lower, and to slip further in the first part of '06. The biggest growth in our latest survey is in the ranks of the fence sitters, or the 40% of respondents who call themselves neutral about stocks these days. Just 26% of respondents lacked conviction in last year's surveys, although higher interest rates have altered the backdrop since then. As Don Hahn, chief investment strategist for Mesirow Financial, sees it, the factors pulling the market forward are equal in force to those retarding its progress. On the positive side, he says, the economy is growing, corporate earnings are rising and price-earnings ratios are in line with historical averages. On the negative side, however, interest rates are rising, oil prices are high and inflation is becoming a concern. The managers' growing doubts also might reflect the timing of our poll, which was e-mailed to investors in late March. Back then the Dow stood at 10,456, about 300 points above today's levels. The S&P changed hands at 1172, compared with about 1156 currently, and the Nasdaq Composite fetched 1990, versus 1921 now. That anyone remained bullish through April's hellish rout is testament to the long-range vision, and perhaps the contrarian bent, of many Big Money respondents. online.barrons.com

To: orkrious who wrote (31473)	4/30/2005 9:12:19 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

My View Expressed in That Post Has Changed Only in My Cynicism about a May rally. I'm still willing to predict it, smirk at it when it comes, but, I'm less willing now to actually bet on it. For me, a tremendous amount depends on Tuesday, as to whether the Fed blinks, stays the same, or really puts the screws to the market and "inflation." Market reaction will be like a whole event unto itself afterward, with its own "effect" as in we will study "what the markets did" immediately afterward. Since I am saying things now like "alot depends on Tuesday", that, in itself, is a sign to me that my whole focus has tightend up considerably. I'm no longer thinking in years and months. It's down to days. Weeks at best. My longer term structural views of the US economy--as one headed for serious trouble--ran, into its own roadblocks post the election, because I began to see that the world flooded with dollars was having an effect with a much, much longer Wave, than I had been thinking. In other words, I reversed my view for the time being, and started believing that Armageddon (actually, let's call it the Mud Slide into the hole) had been forestalled. While I still think I "may" be right about that, and while I still conjecture that the global economy is experiencing an Echo Boomlet to the massive low interest rates set in motion several years ago, I must say things are moving along very quickly here towards the dark side. What has me irked is that my views are now oscillating really fast. I don't like that. I'm also very concerned because I see the chance now that the whole Hurricane, which we've all talked about on this board may be unfolding. It's not just the stock market. It's every market. I see it everywhere, as I'm sure you do. Anyway, "talking" about it for 12+ months on this board, and with friends and other traders was alot more "fun" than actually sensing it may finally be here. Coda: and where is Gold at this particular hour? Gold should be stepping up to the plate. But the gold advocates are in mortal terror, right here. If Crude can stay under 50.00 for 4 weeks, we will have a strong "the market and economy have been saved!" theme to run with and will likely scare the hell out of Early Shorts. But I'll tell ya, these markets looks Ornery. They looks like they're ready to Fade the bejesus out of any "good" news whatsoever. Crude under 50.00? Fed Blinks and softens language or gives hint of pause? These markets look like their ready to outfox just about everybody. Regards, LP