Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slagle who wrote (63092)	4/30/2005 10:21:48 PM
From: redfish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I remember when the fed first started lowering Cramer predicted repeatedly that they would lower all the way down to 3.5%. They exceeded that by quite a margin and now he is chagrined that they might raise it as high as 3.5%. So 3.5% went from being the bottom to being the top.

To: Slagle who wrote (63092)	4/30/2005 11:04:36 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

What all shows do you watch Slagle - it might can help the rest of us here - I have told you all the radio shows I listen too - I have not listened to the stock doctors or wize trade guys - but I think except for those 2 and NPR's motley fool I am getting all the relevant shows - but I watch no TV - what are you watching? Also I tried to read all the news here marumushi.com and click on the business section - it is a good tool. Also I try to read new relevant economic academic papers posted by thomson scientific on thier impact factor and read the BLOGS by the major economists with Phds. Also any audio I can listen too where major economists or analysts are speaking - the www.cfr.org was good and www.project-syndicate.org. I am just getting back on here reading messages since my girlfriend left my life - I see people posting from the capitalstool site - so I guess that is a good one too - but I am already so pressed for time. I am gonna have to cut a few of my info sources. I don't trust Cramer, he has made some bad picks lately that cost some people money - the radio traders said he should give an apology to people in INSP. Message 21039951 Searching for Cramer here on SI I found a new thread I am going to bookmark - CNBC critique. I don't like CNBC in general - the women are too beautiful, takes my mind off money and gets my tiny little head buzzing - they are too upbeat and watching it long enough gets me excited and happy and brainwashed and then I don't make smart decisions then - just emotional ones. However I think it can be used to see how they brainwash the masses and invest accordingly. Message 21271691 Read the past 40 messages there on Cramer - I don't like what I am seeing. So I think CRAMER is pumping for whatever nefarious reasons. I have read several reports over on mish's thread that most economists/analysts expect 2 more .25 rate rises. They are saying over there inflation is worse than deflation and I think I agree with that. So expect more inflation fighting by the FED. You and I know phil is not being 100% honest either, but I think he is looking out for the little guy lots more than Cramer - I think phil has it right when he says they are gonna pump the financials on earnings so they can unload to the sheeple. They will try, wether it goes up or not rests in wether you think the pumpers can still get the sheeple to drink the koolaid - I think so - people are dumb. So for right now I believe GREENIE will raise still but the financials if they have good earnings will bring a shortterm rally. Your bulls and bears analysis is useful - thanks for taking the time to watch it and share with the rest of us - perhaps they are not pumping it because they are silently accumulating knowing the earnings will be good and they will SELL then - buy the rumor - sell the news right? That could be wild speculation on my dumb guess. I think you have NAILED it Slagle on their collusion, but remember - I shorted GOOG at 160 and rode it up to 185 so I did lose money and am often wrong, but I am convinced the more we study, learn, experience, and analyze the better traders we will become - Phil has to be one of the best so far - even for his faults - we shall see how good he really is when and if the financials rally. I am all cash right now in my trading account, still holding vanguard short term bonds and vangaurd international value fund. A lot of smart people say we are going lower - if the trend establishes itself I am going to short something, I just don't know what yet - hehe.

To: Slagle who wrote (63092)	5/1/2005 5:12:14 PM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 74559

There Seems to Be a Range Now on the XLE to XLF. I think where you are on to something is in the comparison between the two. They should both be watched in relation to each other, carefully. I'm less convinced however that money will sustainably depart XLE stocks for XLF stocks. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Both have been under pressure, for different reasons. However, I really do question how much an institutional manager is going to give up the dividends, and valuations represented by the XLE universe, for the much lower divs and higher vals, in the XLF. Short-term, it may be percived there's less price risk in the XLF stocks. However, you have to remember that for most middle of the road money managers, they are "afraid" of the future direction of interest rates. What they see is that "The Fed is hiking." It's only the truly savvy that are willing to make a major bet on sustainably lower interest rates, here. (and a nice pop in the Financials.) Yes, the market is set up right now to have some moderate relief in either a) Fed hawkishness, or b) Inflation expectations. I'm currently arguing that if the Fed does NOT blink, just a little, on Tuesday and instead "acts tough", that's going to present a problem for all stocks and without question the XLF. Even though long rates will probably rally on that. Finally, it's important to remember that the vast majority of market participants do not understand interest rates with any depth whatsoever. It's always been that way. And I don't see it changing. For those who do understand interest rates, it is of course very intellectually rewarding. And, discussions of the the future rate environment and the possible behaviour of financial assets in that environment can reach a level that is almost philosphical. As others are noting, Longer Term Puts on the XLF look cheap. And reflect, imo, a tremendous amount of ingrained thinking and confidence these cos. are bullet-proof. Best, LP