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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (43247)	5/1/2005 6:46:19 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 206342

>>> To be honest I am astonished that you and several others who have frequented these boards over the last 5 years have not focused on the fundamentals of the sector. A cursory review of the charts and fundamentals would have told you that blindly buying OIH ~$55 in 2003 would net you 40-50% gains sooner or later. <<< Ok, let's talk about that. Over a 2 year period, I could have "blindly" bought the OIH and earned a 40-50% gain. I'm assuming at some point you had to be 100% invested to earn that amount on your total account? If that's true, then let's talk about risk. Let's agree that your 2 year forecast is accurate. It's going to work out. You are 100% invested over 2 years and you ride out the dips and trips and in the end, you earned your 40-50% profit. What if you are wrong looking forward? What if the next two years doesn't provide the returns the last 2 did and heaven forbid, what if those gains are given back? How do you measure risk against loss, in the event losses come? You mentioned my scalping 2% per month and to be honest, that comment by itself doesn't tell the whole picture. That 2% per month has come during a time when the markets are showing negative returns. My portfolio over on my thread is up 10.8% over the last six months since publicly showing every trade. That doesn't sound like much, but I was never more than 50% invested during that time and at times was only 10% invested. When you factor in risk exposure, the returns are quite good and if you extend those returns over 2 years, they equal your blind 100% invested 40-50% returns. My message here over the last couple of months has been about the condition of the market. When do you expose 100% of your money and when do you pair back and protect profits? Last August, when market conditions were better, I was 100% invested and even on margin at one point. >>> BTW, had an excellent week in the market. Went nearly fully invested on Monday and some of my better performers for the week were AVII, up 20%. NT, up 16% and RFMD, up 10%. <<< Message 20432943 >>> I went "fully invested" last week. I was able to catch a very nice bounce as all of my positions with the exception of PTEN are up double figures, several up 20% or more. <<< Message 20440485 >>> Locking in profits today on NT and REV. Netted 12% on NT and over 20% on REV. Sold PTEN for a 5% loss as the oil service sector is showing considerable weakness. I'm up over 25% on AVII in a week and a half and I think I'll hold a little longer. Up 8% on a position in SIRI that I picked up last week. <<< Message 20442821 >>> Locking in profits today on AVII, BLDP and PTEN. I don't like the late afternoon activity here. Off margin and raising some cash. <<< Message 20495719 That last message happened to hit the market peak. I caught the entire month's move and I was off margin and raising cash right at the top of that rally. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20040501,20040907][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G Here is the chart nearly one month later and I didn't suffer the drawdown. Profits were protected. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20040601,20040927][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G Again Que, I'm not knocking your style of trading. There is more than one way to make money in the market. I have questioned why some people would allow 100% of a Stage 2 uptrend to slip away without protecting some profits. You protected some of yours. You did the right thing. You weren't 100% invested and on margin at a time when this sector was correcting. As far as me not following fundamentals, I never will. There's no need for me too. I'm outperforming the markets and doing it consistently. That's my objective. As long as my objectives are being met, why change? dabum