Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rrufff who wrote (8279)	5/1/2005 5:17:07 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

The charts tell the story, and the markets will move up now. How fast will depend on the $SOX, but I expect repetitive tests of support that will be successful. We do not yet have the infrastructure in place for a solid, sustained drive upwards, but we have made a lot of progress towards that end. So while the tests of support will be successful on whole going forward, until the market accumulates more "fuel", the resistance levels will not fall easily. But they will fall sooner or later, and most often that will mean a few tries. So the drive upwards from here will be, well.. "a measured pace." They will invent the "reasons" later. The markets will move up, and no matter what the FOMC says, they will find a way to explain how traders saw this as a plus. So if the FOMC says we are in another "soft patch" and the market rallies, they will say "traders snapped up shares of cheap stocks today, cheered by new prospects from the Fed that the rate of tightening might be eased" If the FOMC says the economy is sound and is not worried and will continue tightening on its "measured pace", then the reason will be "traders snapped up shares of cheap stocks today, breathing a collective sigh of relief that the FOMC considers the economy to be in good shape." I think one would be well-advised to interpret fundamental news within the context of the chart. After all, the chart is really the summation of all data input, including fundamental news. So to me, it is not that fundamentals are irrelevant, just that they are but one thing the discounting machine that is the market digests----but it usually does so with a time frame that looks forward 9 to 12 months. So today's news should be looked at not in terms of its effects today or this week or this month, but how it might change things in 9-12 months. That's why the market has a seemingly amazing capacity to ignore news---because usually the news it is ignoring has little or no long-term effects. This is one of the big problems with the talking heads and their "news," and that's why IMHO it can be wildly misleading, and frequently laughable. Their "news" simply doesn't constitute significant input into the discounting machine, and is often trivial or completely irrelevant in terms of input into the discounting machine. And even if it is relevant input, often that "news" has long ago been anticipated, expected, and discounted. From our perspective then, these things must be looked at with a very very critical eye keeping in mind how the MARKET operates, not how Cramer or somebody thinks. The markets don't care and with relatively rare examples usually confined to situations where floats can be easily pushed around, what pundits or experts of one kind or another think just don't have a significant effect on stock prices or market behavior. T