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To: Dale Baker who wrote (41112)	5/2/2005 8:22:58 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

I expect PDG to appreciate at least 50% over the course of the next year. My reasoning is quite simple: 1)The Gold/XAU ratio is over 5. That means the mining stocks are dirt cheap relative to the POG. 2) At some point over the next 6-9 months, I expect the USD to resume its Bear Market and initiate another leg down. Perhaps this will occur when the Fed stops tightening. I can give more reasons but it is not necessary. To take a phrase from Clinton, "it's the Gold/XAU Ratio, stupid." That's an indicator you can take to the bank. PS A good gold fund like America Century (or Fidelity Select Gold Fund) will do the trick too.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (41112)	5/2/2005 8:48:36 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 118717

<<that's an excuse the alleged professionals use when they can't pick stocks.> In a real bear market, there will be nowhere to hide except cash. Only 10%-15% of all stocks traded will rise. How many money managers will produce positive returns in that kind of market environment? Very few. They'll be looking for needles in a haystack. What's best for a money manager is not always what's best for a clients interest. It sometimes takes guts and courage to walk away and preserve cash. I have problems with most money managers because they don't respect risk. PS I never took CNBC seriously.