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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (19875)	5/2/2005 11:49:43 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207243

Chip, it's been correlating well since August 2003. Until it stops, I believe we need to respect it. Here's the USD weekly. Note the lows in the SPX in August 2003 coincided with a pivot high in the USD. Note that the Feb. 2004 USD low was also the SPX high. Note the May 2004 high in the USD was a pivot low on the SPX. The August 2004 lows SPX low was a pivot high on the USD that was within 2 points of the May high. The Dec. 2004 multi-year low on the USD coincided with the 1218 SPX highs. I believe the macro pivots on the USD since August 2003 confirm the SPX and USD are moving inversely for the most part since that period. USD weekly: stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[d20030602,20050502][pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!c50!c200!b200!b50!a!b225!b250!f][vc60][iLa4,9,5!Lh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Lp7,2,2!Lo14!Lb5!Le5,10,1!Lh89,34!Lh45,17!Li180,68!Li90,34!Ll14!Ld20][J21313801,Y]&pref=G SPX weekly: stockcharts.com[e,a]waclyyay[d20030702,20050502][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G Take the Dec. 2004 high on the SPX of 1218 and divide by the August 2003 low of 960. You get 27%. Take the Dec. 2004 low on the USD of 80.39 to the August 2003 highs of 99.49 and you get 24%. That is not a coincidence, IMO. The timing and percentages of the moves make it so. Basically, if you're bullish on the SPX here, you need to be bearish on the USD. There is no middle ground, IMO.