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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (23136)	5/2/2005 3:23:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95480

That's a great post to show why "long term, buy and hold" is not the best way to make money in semi-equip stocks. At least not at this point in a relatively mature industry. It might have worked in the beginning, but not for several years lately.

To: BWAC who wrote (23136)	5/2/2005 3:23:29 PM
From: BMcV	Respond to of 95480

CSFB recently lowered their target on TER to $10 (underperform). A year ago, on April 22, 2004, they issued a report with a target of $35 (and an outperform rating). As you can see from this chart, the stock never made it: finance.yahoo.com In fact, that little spike around July 1 was the only time the stock price ever came back to the $23 shares were trading for when the report was issued. A year ago, CSFB saw TER 1Q2005 revenues at $560 million (vs $306 million actually reported a few weeks ago) and earnings of $0.46 / share (vs a loss of $0.21). Their method is summed up best by this quote from their "macro" call on the SCE space: "If capex spending was linear for the remainder of 2005, sequential capex momentum will decline 36% q/q in 2Q05." In other words, if capex spending in 2004 were linear, our estimate for TER's revenues one year out would not have been off by 50%. Or, if capex spending were linear, our analysis would not be a complete fiction.