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Strategies & Market Trends : YEEHAW CANDIDATES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Galirayo who wrote (7602)	5/5/2005 10:19:52 AM
From: LAWRENCE C.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23958

Ray, there is enough oil production capacity, now and will be for some amount of time, to meet oil demand. Yes, there are some new oil discoveries but most are small compared to the 1990's discoveries. Yes, there are renewable oil alternatives but most will only provide a small portion of world enery needs if they can even get built. Be AWARE that each day brings us closer to peak oil production per day. After that oil production will trend downward. At some point increasing demand will hit maximum oil production per day. Most oil alternatives will be more economical only after oil prices rise a lot more. One of the biggest problems is the Not In My Backyard mentality. We could have more wind turbines, etc. but many people will say Not In My Backyard till it is too late. Many people bought SUV's and other gas guzzlers thinking that there is an abundance of cheap oil. "World oil consumption may rise 2 % in 2005 led by US 28-06-04 World oil consumption may rise 2 % next year, led by increased usage of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel in the US, Societe Generale said. Demand may rise 1.6 mm barrels to 82.7 mm bpd, according to France's third-largest bank." gasandoil.com Yes, there are oil finds but most are too small to make much difference. The faster world oil demand grows the quicker we reach maximum production. Even the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge oil will produce a small percentage of US oil consumption. When demand gets near maximum production, there will be fierce price competition for the oil. Most people aren't even aware of this. Our politicians aren't insisting on higher CAFE standards. Higher gasoline prices has weakened demand for SUV's which is good. Sadly, most US cars are not among the fuel efficent for there class. And truck fuel economy is horrible. Very little of transportation funding is spend to develop better mass transit which could save a lot of oil in major metros. As a nation we have become dependant on cheap oil and gas. "Whether peak oil arrives in 2005, 2010, or 2015, and whether the maximum level of daily oil output turns out to be 90 or 100 million barrels will not matter much in the long run. In any of these scenarios, global oil production will level off and begin to decline at a level far below the anticipated world demand of 120 million barrels per day in 2025. True, some of this shortfall may be absorbed by the accelerated development of "unconventional" petroleum fuels -- liquid condensate from the production of natural gas, fuels derived from tar sands and oil shale, liquids extracted from coal, and the like -- but these materials are exceedingly costly to produce and their manufacture entails too many environmental risks to make them practical substitutes for conventional oil." Lawrence