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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (681390)	5/3/2005 8:05:31 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Respond to of 769667

kennyboy: permabear safehaven.com The CRB initially inched above 300 about two weeks ago on February 25th, barely sneaking above this fabled benchmark. Then for the next 8 days in a row it continued to carve new bull-to-date highs, creating a 9-day consecutive daily winning streak that in and of itself is quite extraordinary in any market. And with the CRB now 4%+ over 300, technicians can consider this breakout "decisive", the real deal. This CRB 300 breakout is really a monumentally important event that validates the ongoing secular bull market in commodities. Back in early 2001 when I first wrote about the Great Commodities Bull of the 00s near the secular bottom all of this was just heretical theory, but thankfully today this bull is an indisputable reality. The original theory and the now confirmed reality were built on a simple thesis. Global commodities demand was and is growing relentlessly yet global production capacity in most commodities just cannot keep pace. And whenever we have demand growth increasing faster than supply growth the inevitable free-market response is rising prices. Higher prices help bring supply and demand back into balance by encouraging new production while discouraging greater consumption. Commodities demand is growing for a variety of reasons, but the great industrialization of Asia is certainly the primary one. About half of the world's population lives in Asia and has never experienced anything like the abundant material standard of living that we take for granted in the States and Europe. As the rise of Asia gradually increases the local standards of living, the per capita consumption of virtually all major commodities will probably eventually approach first-world levels. ...... Great bull markets are often said to "climb a wall of worry", and thanks to the financial media the fears of greatly overpriced commodities are already being sown. When the mainstreamers fret about 24-year CRB highs, they are considering the blue nominal line above. Indeed, if you refuse to adjust for inflation the venerable CRB is traveling in rarified realms and looks quite toppy. But ignoring inflation in multi-decade secular trend analysis is just plain naive and foolish. A dollar today won't buy a fraction of what it would in 1980 at the last secular commodities peak. Thanks to the reckless and unaccountable Fed, the broad money supply of dollars has rocketed by a staggering 5x since early 1980! Thus our pricing environment today is totally incomparable to decades past unless inflation is considered. The red real CRB line above is the CPI-adjusted line, again conservative since CPI growth rates are intentionally lowballed by government statisticians to minimize growth in the welfare payments that are indexed to them. In real constant-2005-dollar terms, the CRB actually topped above 750 in early 1980, vastly higher than today's 300ish CRB levels. In fact, today's commodities prices are just hovering around the levels of the mid-1990s in real terms which is certainly a far cry from the topping hysteria the mainstream media is now advancing. Just as secular equity bulls and bears tend to run for decades, so do secular commodities bulls and bears. In nominal terms commodities ended a brutal 21-year bear in October 2001. In real terms this same bear stretches to 27 years when the Fed's relentless debasement of our savings and currency is considered. The length of this preceding bear is important as it highlights just how long commodities-producing infrastructure investment has been woefully neglected. In addition, bulls and bears tend to be symmetrical in length. Just like the congruent individual bullish and bearish 17-year secular trends that make up one Long Valuation Wave cycle, the young secular commodities bull now underway is likely to run for a length of time similar to its antecedent bear. Therefore the several years of secular commodities bull-dom that we have witnessed so far are likely just the very beginning.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (681390)	5/4/2005 6:04:13 PM
From: Hope Praytochange	Respond to of 769667

ouch ......... lost another SHORT$$$$$ Dow Jumps 125 Points on Kerkorian GM Offer By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Filed at 5:44 p.m. ET NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks skipped higher Wednesday as investors were emboldened by decent earnings, a handful of mergers and billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian's bid to substantially add to his stake in General Motors Corp. The Dow Jones industrials soared more than 125 points. Wall Street enjoyed a broad rally as investors shrugged off some of the worries that have dogged stocks in recent weeks. The possible return of the 30-year bond was the biggest news of the day, but analysts said what really lured stock buyers back from the sidelines was Kerkorian's commitment to troubled auto maker GM. Considered a smart value investor, Kerkorian's unexpected move may have restored some faith in the market, which ultimately could turn sentiment around. ''It kind of surprised everyone that someone as savvy as him would talk about increasing his stake in a beleaguered company. It suggested that there is value in this market,'' said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors. ''On the days the stock market reverses or changes direction, it's often hard, historically, to find a reason why, on that day. I used to say the market seems to reach magical moments, and this may very well be one of those magical moments, where the configuration of events is just enough to get investors back on the bandwagon.'' The Dow closed up 127.69, or 1.2 percent, at 10,384.64, largely thanks to the 18 percent rise in GM's share price. Broader stock indicators were also higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 14.48, or 1.25 percent, to 1,175.65. The Nasdaq composite index rose 29.16, or 1.5 percent, to 1,962.23. The announcement that the government is considering bringing back the 30-year Treasury rattled the bond market, sending the yield on the 10-year note to 4.19 percent, up from 4.17 percent late Tuesday. Prices of the existing 30-year Treasury also sank. The 30-year note, discontinued in 2001 at a time of government surplus, could provide important financing in an era of record budget deficits; a decision is expected in August. The U.S. dollar fell Wednesday against other major currencies in European trading; gold prices rose. Oil futures rebounded from earlier lows, rising 63 cents to settle at $50.13 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a weekly government report showed rising supplies of crude oil and gasoline. ''Oil is going to influence us every day, there's no doubt. Any time we see some drop in oil prices, that's good for the market,'' said Michael Palazzi, managing director of equity trading at SG Cowen Securities. ''I think there's quite a bit of cash on the sidelines taking its cue from the positive news on GM, and from decent earnings projections.'' GM soared $5.03 to $32.80 after Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. offered to pay about $870 million for a nearly 5 percent stake in the automaker, a deal that would boost the billionaire's stake to nearly 9 percent. Kerkorian is seeking to purchase 28 million shares at $31 apiece. Time Warner Inc. added 60 cents to $17.28 after the world's largest media company said its first-quarter earnings rose slightly on growth at its cable networks, cable TV and several one-time gains. Per share earnings beat the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial by a penny a share. MetLife Inc. surged 12 percent, or $4.71, to $43.55, after the insurance company announced a 65 percent surge in first-quarter profits over last year on strong gains across all its business lines. The company raised its full-year earnings forecast based on the strong results and its planned acquisition of Travelers Life & Annuity and most of the international insurance operations from Citigroup Inc. Communications tower management firm American Tower Corp. was down 1 cent at $17.20 after announcing plans to pay $3.1 billion in stock to acquire rival SpectraSite Inc., a Cary, N.C.-based operator of wireless and broadcast signal towers. SpectraSite added 8.9 percent, or $5.00, to $61.20. Genzyme Corp. was up 12 cents at $60.02 after announcing plans to acquire Bone Care International in a deal valued at about $600 million. Bone Care soared 35 percent, or $8.28, to $32.11. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was up 10.74, or 1.84 percent, at 595.22. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange. Preliminary consolidated volume came to 2.32 billion shares, compared with 2.16 billion traded Tuesday. Overseas, Japanese financial markets were closed Wednesday for People's Holiday, a national holiday. Trading will resume on Friday after the annual ''golden week'' holidays. In Europe, France's CAC-40 rose 0.80 percent, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.44 percent and Germany's DAX index added 0.44 percent. ^------ On the Net: New York Stock Exchange: nyse.com Nasdaq Stock Market: nasdaq.com