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To: All Mtn Ski who wrote (5314)5/3/2005 1:21:58 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5867
 
Re: Japan also has a huge savings rate, something like 20%, whereas Americans are down around 1% for 2004

This savings rate does NOT include 401ks or retirement plans, a big chunk of how people save today, so those comparisons are disingenuous at best.



To: All Mtn Ski who wrote (5314)5/3/2005 2:18:51 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5867
 
RE: "America sneezes...Global economic growth declines further..."

There is no doubt that there are problems with domestic and world economies. But, domestic and world economic growth continues. As Brian has pointed out, semi sales are growing and have surpassed 2000 peak levels. As long as economies are expanding, semi growth will continue and be at a pace greater than the economic growth rate. The semi industry is growing prudently. It is likely that only a recession will produce a down cycle. A recession is not on the horizon.

I have seen rising sales and earnings for the companies I am holding, but declining PEs. I can't tell when the PEs stop declining and start expanding, but I am confident thay will and the companies will still be operating successfully when that happens.

I am not just a buy and hold investor. I sold 75% in 2000 and moved 60% into 5 year CDs. I started buying again after 9/11 and I will finish up at the end of this month. I have pretty much shown a breakeven performance with these purchases.