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To: cyesp who wrote (43381)	5/3/2005 6:31:01 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 206326

Cy, Thank you. One of the most challenging things to do is to try to figure out what the probabilities are beyond the hard right edge of the chart. It's a bit like the weather in that we can see some probabilities based on all the data we have with us on Day 1. But when Day 2 unfolds, we have a whole new set of data inputs which can alter the view. Day 3 brings yet another set, yet the investor is required, each day (or smaller period) to look at an edge beyond which there is no data, the future, and come to a decision by processing all the previous data plus current input, all in order to maximize profits. XLE can be analyzed a number of ways on a chart. For one, it's riding along the 90 dma: stockcharts.com[h,a]dacayiay[dc][pb90!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ur14!Uh14,3]&pref=G You will note that ATR is rising; ATR is a proxy for volatility and XLE is getting more and more volatile. I think the long term uptrend is still intact but showing real signs of strain, and as a practice do not predict ends to uptrends or downtrends, but on the weekly the volume and volatility has grown so strong that I feel this will be breaking one way or the other. Any breakout will be strong, but a breakdown will be stronger and I would expect to see it break down to 30 in little or no time. Kb

To: cyesp who wrote (43381)	5/3/2005 6:56:57 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 206326

Cy, in looking at a weekly chart of XLE, I have a couple of observations to pass along. First of all, this is a weekly chart but it shows the last 5 trading days, it's not a calendar week chart. If you look at a weekly chart on Stockcharts, you get an incomplete chart because it will only show 2 days. My chart will show an actual weekly chart, that being the last 5 trading days. You'll note that XLE is in an uptrend with the 20 week moving average above the 40 week and a comfortable distance between the two. This is usually a set up that calls for playing to the long side. From the time price broke out in September, XLE has tested the 20 week moving average three times and responded with a rally. We are now testing it for the fourth time. However, look at the middle window. It is a volume indicator and measured against a 20 week moving average. The volume indicator (white line) has not only dropped below the 20 week moving average, it has fallen below the zero line. This is very bearish. The lower window is your money stream indicator (yellow line) and also measured against a 20 week moving average. Money stream is extremely negative. Although we would expect price to bounce off the 20 week moving average, volume and money flows aren't creating an environment conducive for a sustained rally. For two months I've been talking about declining money flows and the prices keep falling. You may get a brief rally and then see price drop below the 20 week moving average. If it does, $37 is your next support level. With money flows this negative, I don't know why some think the bottom might be in. We've been taking one step forward and two steps backward for two months now and money flows continue to get worse. ttrader.com dabum

To: cyesp who wrote (43381)	5/3/2005 9:41:47 PM
From: RWS	Respond to of 206326

Here's another chart of XLE. ADX is on sell, stochastics bearish. Price has pulled back under the 38% retrace of the advance from January so it will very likely visit the 62% level which is 38.32. The 55day ema is resistant. RWS stockcharts.com[h,a]dacayiay[dc][pc55!c13!f][vc60][iut!Ul13!Up13,5,3]&pref=G

To: cyesp who wrote (43381)	5/13/2005 8:10:20 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

Cye, the XLE road map: Step 1, April 25, analyze a rallying chart with absolute neutrality. The stock had risen for 6 days and was threatening to break through $43 and rechallenge $44 and $45: Message 21263423 Step 2, May 3, observe the damage to the stock. What is likely to happen going forward, where is the trajectory on the daily chart? If you want to go long, is there any rush? Message 21289962 (Cye: "I don't think we make it to $37... and probably not to $38 either. I will probably start buying a little below $39ish.") Don't be in a rush. The following chart shows a free fall area from here down to $37. Let the chart tell you what to do, and when (that's my advice): stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pc20!c30!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Uah12,26,9]&pref=G Kb