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Politics : The Castle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (4799)	5/3/2005 9:04:37 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 7936

Will an aging population lower stock returns? The study, by James M. Poterba, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has found that changes in the proportion of retirees in the population have only a modest impact on stock market returns. So while the market is likely to come under some downward pressure from the retirement of boomers over the next couple of decades, he says he believes that there is no reason to expect the effects to be severe. Professor Poterba's study, "The Impact of Population Aging on the Financial Markets," has been circulating since last autumn as an academic working paper. A copy is at papers.ssrn.com. He compared the market's year-to-year returns from 1926 to 2003 with the annual changes in a number of demographic indicators, including the proportion of the population in retirement - a phase of life when investors are presumably net sellers of stock. He also looked at the share of the population in the 40-to-64 age group - people who tend to be net buyers of stocks. Regardless of the statistical test used, however, he found little evidence to support a forecast of a long-term bear market over the next couple of decades... marginalrevolution.com

To: TimF who wrote (4799)	5/4/2005 7:53:44 AM
From: Lane3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7936

I think you posted about enjoying "Freakonomics". Maybe you will enjoy the blog as well. Thanks, Tim. I'll check it out.