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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (8370)	5/4/2005 9:43:29 PM
From: rrufff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Thanks Reid - my first reaction is that it looks very interesting. I will provide links to the post to others.

To: Vendit™ who wrote (8370)	5/4/2005 10:44:15 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Ahhhh... our old friend PVCT. I see it has done pretty much what we predicted back in the middle of February: <<It failed at the 200 sma and confirmed that failure, and that was further confirmed with a bear cross. The burden of proof now rests with PVCT. It has thrust through the 200 sma, but has not confirmed a trend change. Most likely, this represent a bull trap IMHO. Rather, the bulk of the evidence is most consistent with PVCT trading down from here, probably to the lower BB rail ($0.68), which would mean that this was indeed a bull trap since the 200 sma currently sits at $0.90. If this occurs, a move back down to test support at $0.50 would be likely.>> Message 21043690 Today it got within $0.02 of the target predicted. I think it will go considerably lower than that eventually... as it turned out, it was indeed a classic bull trap, and hit your target a month or so ago: Message 21042037 But in so doing, it sealed its fate, because it not only failed at the 200, but made a lower low and lower high, thus confirming the failure. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b200!f][vc60]&pref=G Now, the final nail in the coffin is in place: a bear cross: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60]&pref=G I think we'll likely see a bit of a bounce here, but the medium and long-term future of PVCT looks very gloomy to me. The lows from December ($0.45) will be revisited, and will very likely fall: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60]&pref=G This is an interesting case. PVCT trades low volume, sometimes goes several days without trading, but was still very predictable. It ended up showing us a classic example of a failure at the 200, followed by a bull trap and a double-top failure resolving the bull trap, then confirming all criteria for a new downtrend. I think we should reconsider the general rule that TA is not appropriate for low volume stocks. I think if the stock is picked carefully, and shows a history of orderly trading, then TA can be applied to it successfully. But for stocks that gap around without warning and with little rhyme or reason and do strange things historically, then TA will probably not work well. T