Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: etchmeister who wrote (14775)	5/5/2005 4:04:43 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Etch, I believe that what you and Brian are saying is true but does it really matter? It does not matter enough that earnings are better than they were in 2000. It does not matter enough that sales of chip equipment remains strong enough for the biggest and best in this industry to remain profitable. What matters is when will institutions stop being net sellers of stocks in this industry like AMAT. When will they become net buyers again. What Big Bucks is saying is set aside all the data that makes you feel good about owning these stocks now because he believes it will get worse (stock prices) before it gets better. There is only one reason why he could be right and it is simply that these stocks are ruled by supply and demand. It does not matter how many shares are bought or sold by what kinds of means. What matters is when will the tide swing in favor of those who want to buy and hold for a year or more without having to worry the market is going lower still? Institutional investors hold the key. They treat these stocks as cyclical. P/E's don't matter much to them and neither does the btb. RtS

To: etchmeister who wrote (14775)	5/5/2005 5:15:21 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 25522

Etchmeister, don't you think that ASP is directly correlated to improved productivity and yields? In other words, if unit yields have increased with less processing (fewer wafers because of 300mm output) necessary, then having excess available processing equipment just further depresses prices and exacerbates unit price declines. True, more chips are being sold but at lower profit margins per chip, except in the highest end technologies. IMO, DRAM and Flash are commodity chips because of the vast numbers that can be quickly produced and by the amount of equipment available to insure production. I do agree that wireless technologies and Flash will continue to be the major chip drivers as consumers continue to embrace mobility enabling products. BB