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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (3616)	5/5/2005 8:28:56 PM
From: ridingycurve	Respond to of 13449

<<If you are looking at longer term time frames, then you need to ignore daily charts and look at weekly and monthly charts. I use a 20 week and 40 week moving average on weekly charts. Weinstein likes the 30 week moving average. But all of your trades should start with the long term chart.>> I was not clear about my risk tolerance and time horizon. Looking at a daily chart of XLE (as a proxy for the energy sector), my goal would have been to capture most of the run that began in January and have been totally out in time to have avoided most of the subsequent downside beginning in March. This would more or less describe what I would want to do on a repetitive basis. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lc20]&pref=G In fact, I did capture much of the upside; but also suffered more of the downside than I should have. Not only was I late leaving the party, but compounded the error by trying to get back in too soon. I did use fundamental analysis, and my very limited TA knowledge, to initially exit at or near the 50-day MA for some stocks, and was a little earlier than that on others (although I let emotions get in the way of timely exits from other stocks). My No. 1 objective is preservation of capital, and I don’t really mind being out of the market for extended periods of time. I don’t feel pressed to maximize returns, and could use more free time for hobbies. Additionally, if I didn’t have to keep tabs on multiple portfolios during the periods I was out, I might take a shot at some of your short-term trades. I believe the experience would be very beneficial in getting a better feel for TA. Don’t get me wrong. I have enjoyed great investment success the last couple of years (at least by my standards), with returns of 70% and 37% for 2003 and 2004, respectively; but I would like to relax more now. I wonder if the weekly charts might be more suitable for my kids, while the daily charts and 20 and 50-day moving averages, or at least something other than weekly moving averages, might not suit my needs better? I do believe that someone who is sector focused needs to operate with shorter time frames than someone who embraces the broad markets. I should also mention that I enjoy investing in, and staying abreast of, the energy markets. I doubt I would get the same enjoyment from other sectors. With this additional information, would you alter your recommendations? Thanks for the explanation of Stages. Now saved to my hard drive. ridin Note to KB – Other than dabum’s posts, yours and the Dog’s posts are the only ones I religiously read at the Dog’s board.