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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mahatmabenfoo who wrote (468)	5/6/2005 11:39:05 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1183

>>I would not see a rise of oil & gas company stocks as a sign that peak is not here.<< That was a double negative and my brain is frying. :) Otherwise I agree with you. The stocks of oil/gas will go up on the news of the peak and maybe within 1-2 years of the peak. After that they will probably go down a lot as their recoverable resources shrink, they get kicked out of different countries and possibly nationalized. Incredible shrinking Jurgis

To: Mahatmabenfoo who wrote (468)	5/6/2005 3:44:28 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1183

Re: Eventually commodity companies could lose money in fruitless exploration for non-existant reserves, This is not a likely scenario. All sophisticated exploration companies are now relying heavily on seismic studies to identify favorable geological structures. The "dry hole" is becoming a thing of the past. What is much more interesting, from the perspective of securing new reserves, is that the oil majors are simply not engaged in large scale projects in virgin territories today. While U.S. companies are doing some interesting new exploration off the coast of West Africa, they are for the most part either holding onto cash, purchasing reserves (i.e. merging) or paying dividends to shareholders, rather than investing in new developments. * The Economist magazine has a large "Oil" supplemental section in the April 30 edition: economist.com I've read about half of the section, and find it to be modestly informative. YMMV. :) * Re: -- Mr. Market seems to siding with Mr. Simmons. :) Please explain. By which I simply meant that there was a huge development of combined cycle gas fired electrical generation ordered in the U.S. in the mid-1990s based on the price of natural gas remaining fairly constant at $2/mcf. Obviously, a lot of these new plants are in deep distress due to the fact that NG has averaged over $5/mcf over the past year, and looks set to continue rising in price way above the nominal rate of inflation. Simmons has some excellent insights into this market, IMHO. You might want to review some of his Power Point presentations available on his website. They aren't too technical, but they do provide a basis for understanding his concern regarding the inevitable disruptions that scarce NG (and oil) will create.