Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (29494)	5/6/2005 3:21:27 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

HI, THIS IS TIM HANNAGAN AND IT IS FRIDAY, MAY 6TH, AND THIS IS MY WEEKLY REVIEW. CORN: Corn started the week with Monday’s weekly export inspection report showing 36 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 33 the week prior. Inspections are down 103 m.b. on the year. It is a neutral demand signal as 40 plus is needed to be friendly. Monday’s crop progress report put planting at 52% planted, up from our five year average of 45%. The dry week this week could put corn at 75% or better. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 623 t.t. of corn was sold last week up 26% from the week prior but under our four week average of 685. Sales on the year are down 13% so, we do not expect demand to be a driving force near term. Next Thursday’s USDA monthly crop report is expected to show another increase in our carryover. Stocks or ending inventory come Sept. 1st due to our soft demand. Com Monday we should have three quarters of our projected 81.413 million acres planted. This in effect means we move away from weather’s impact on planting progress as our driving force to weather’s impact on emerging crops as 90% of our pricing movement. First things first. If you are a serious trader you must have the best weather service news through August. I find the most accurate and timely site wxrisk.com . If you want to order their service call: 804-717-8256 and talk to Dave Tolleris. July corn has major support at 2.04 then 1.95 with resistance at 2.15. There is a number of weather services out there calling for rains over the midwest corn belt Sunday through Monday then again Thursday. With most of the crop now planted, if those two systems occur with ample rain totals. We could see July futures pull under 2.04 and as low as 1.95 near term as this would foster talk of record seeding leading to record crops. Of course if we come in Monday and Sunday’s rains fail and they now see late week rains as fizzling we will look for July futures to push up but not higher than our 2.15 resistance due to bearish psychology ahead of our Thursday 7:30 a.m. central time. USDA monthly crop report, expected to show an increase in our carryover or ending stocks come Sept. 1st. If you are long or considering buying a break early next week consider buying a June 2.05 put for 2.4 cents or 175 dollars. It gives you downside protection until May 20th. BEAN: Beans started the week with Monday’s weekly export inspection report showing 16 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 15.4 the week prior. Inspections are up 130 m.b. on the year. It is a slightly friendly number as it is well over a year ago of 8 m.b. Monday’s crop progress report put bean planting at 8% complete versus our five year average of 9%. Dry weather this week looks to put planting at 25% or better on Monday’s update. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 327 t.t. of beans were sold last week up 32% from the week prior and 52% over our four week average. Demand continues to be a supportive force as better US business for this time of year arises off Brazil’s shortfall in production. Next Thursday’s government crop report is expected to show another monthly drop in our ending stocks figure due to the better year todate demand. July beans have major support at 6.12 and resistance at 6.32 then 6.44. All week we saw large trading funds buying the breaks. Because of record world demand for beans and the threat of Asian rust spreading into our key midwest growing states, traders do not want to be short into this growing season. If we come in Monday and the two rain system discussed in my corn commentary fizzle and we look dry July beans will push to the 6.44 resistance especially with perception that Thursday’s crop report will be bullish. If rains come in we can get a break after the opening but buy the break. Reason, if they bought breaks all this week on a dry fast planting pace, their sure to buy a wet planting delay forecast with a bullish crop report on its back. WHEAT: Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed 22.6 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 20.9 the week prior but under a year ago of 26 m.b. year todate inspections are off 90 m.b. It is a neutral number. Monday’s winter wheat crop condition report showed 63% of our crop was in good to excellent condition versus the three prior weeks of 68, 69 and 70% but well over a year ago of 48%. Our spring wheat is now 61% planted ahead of our 5 year average of 47%. We had more frost in the upper western plains early this week looking to give us another lower condition rating on Monday’s update. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 245 t.t. of wheat was sold last week down 42% from the week prior and 29% under our four week average. The demand fundamentals remain a non-pricing fundamental with weather and its impact on maturing winter wheat and spring wheat planting 90% of our pricing influence. Trading wheat futures is very tough now as we juggle two separate market events. One, May is when yields are made or lost on our winter wheat crop which comes to harvest in late May into June, and two our spring wheat crop nears planting completion in another 10 days leaving it in a weather market. Trade both sides of futures news influence. For the downside buy a June 3.10 put for 5 cents or 250 dollars. It expires in 2 weeks, and buy the July 3.20 call for 10 to 12 cents or around 550 dollars. The July expires the third week in June and takes you into our winter wheat harvest. Futures players find support on July at 3.10 with minor resistance at 3.17 then 3.26.