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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (29501)	5/6/2005 3:24:58 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

The Daily Reckoning really smacks around the investment industry in the last article of this issue. Since I am one of the charlatans he talks about, I have to pick some nits. 1. He is talking about an old Wall Street where clients "adored" brokers. At least before I had ever heard of Wall Street. Most clients I meet start out believing I'm a crook long before their first trade. Oddly enough, most think mutual fund managers are pretty straight. Uh, who just got busted by Spitzer for late trading and front running? Mutual fund managers. 2. Brokers make more money if their clients make money. Pretty simple equation. 3. Squeezing all the money out of one client, discarding him and finding a new one is MUCH more difficult than keeping the first one as a continuing cash cow. And brokers are lazy. O.K., I'm lazy and I'm a broker. The truth is, most brokers and fund managers are seriously trying to help their clients make money. Even the very worst ones. The real problem is, making money is damned hard and in the long run, it is a zero sum game. If you make money, somebody has to lose it, adjusted for inflation and taxes. It resembles a poker room where you play against other players and the house just takes a piece off the top. The trick is to not go all in on 7/2 offsuit just because a broker thinks it's a good idea. dailyreckoning.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (29501)	5/10/2005 4:12:45 AM
From: zonder	Respond to of 116555

Wrong about what? Wrong about expecting Fed to stop raising rates or even, on several occasions, claiming that their next move would be a cut. You and everyone else has been DEAD WRONG about long rates I don't remember pronouncing a verdict on long term US treasury yields, neither have I ever touched those treasuries, on either long or short sides. As such, I don't see how I have been so "dead wrong". I HAVE said on various occasions that the Fed would continue to raise rates and would be right to do so, given the level of inflation and the obvious insanity of leaving rates at a real negative level. Care to lay a wager on where the 10-yr is a year from now? Nope, because I do not make bets in the casino nor on any other instrument whose movements are controlled by BIG BOSSES, and hence does not behave according to free market principles. US treasuries are one such example, and will continue to be, until the world gives up buying them regardless of their yield, in order to prop their own currencies vs the USD.