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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (31978)	5/6/2005 4:11:12 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

Very nice....I added some MNG, NXG and CEF on that report.

To: ild who wrote (31978)	5/6/2005 5:55:25 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri May 06 2005 16:21 trotsky (newtron@Nixon) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved you're right he was a hated figure for the left, and also that he WAS guilty of the crime. but take Clinton as a counter-example: he was just as hated a figure for the political right, and he too committed the crime the impeachment hearings were based on ( perjury ) . and yet, he walked away scot-free in the end. the major difference between those two cases? the social mood as expressed by the stock market's performance. of course i can't PROVE that Nixon would have gotten away with it if the stock market had risen at the time...but i believe it's a very reasonable hypothesis. addendum: the idea that the 'social mood' finds its expression in the trend of the stock market is courtesy of Prechter - imo it's one of his best ideas. it's not really scientific in the sense that academic studies on it have been performed, but it instinctively makes sense to me. the theory holds that the things that happen in society ( i.e. the symptoms of the 'mood' we can objectively watch, like rising or falling stock prices, more or less horror movies being produced, politicians being able to get away with outrageous stuff or not, hem lines rising or falling, baby boom or baby bust, etc. ) are effects CAUSED by the trend in the social mood. in essence it posits that cause and effect relationships are exactly the opposite of what is normally assumed. in any case, should the stock market suffer a big decline during the remainder of GWB's term, the theory will without a doubt be put to test, since there's no lack of scandals this administration could trip up over if the social mood turns sour again. Date: Fri May 06 2005 16:04 trotsky (newtron) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved imo over the coming year or two, gold should substantially outperform both the base metals as well as the other precious metals , all of which are actually primarily industrial metals. this is based on the idea that the recent global economic slowdown is set to worsen substantially - this should increase investment demand for gold, but decrease industrial demand for the other metals. China is a bit of a wild card in this context, but i doubt it will remain unscathed if the ROW keeps slowing down. Date: Fri May 06 2005 15:54 trotsky (art) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved in the US public, disquiet about the Iraq adventure is slowly but surely growing. but it's of course true that no-one really cares a lot just yet - the war simply doesn't touch most people's lives in any tangible way ( the same can not be said of the Iraqis and the families of military personnel ) . i suspect though that at some point, the overstretched military will have to choose between reducing commitments or introducing a draft. without a doubt the statist planners will try to use whatever opportunity presents itself to go for the draft. this will probably be the beginning of the end, since public resistance will then quickly grow. also, if the stock market becomes weak again and embarks on another major downleg, this will signify a substantial worsening of the social mood, never a good thing for the sitting government ( see e.g. Nixon for an example - who would never have come close to impeachment had the stock market gone up in '73/'74 ) ) .