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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C_Johnson who wrote (14824)	5/7/2005 5:15:03 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Carl, thank you for expanding on your prior statements. PS: I recommend all read infras.com Gottfried

To: C_Johnson who wrote (14824)	5/8/2005 8:35:32 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

Re: There is a difference between semiconductor sales and IC sales. IC sales are sales of Monolithic Integrated Circuits. That's the number I track. It is the lower number and I find it much more relevant in measuring capital spending ratios for advanced technology (300mm, sub-130nm, etc, etc). Why the difference? To quote my past explanation, IC Insights, and for that matter IC Knowledge and others, track the "Numbers that exclude diodes, small signal transistors, power transistors, rectifiers, thyristors, sensors, optoelectronics and a number of different discretes." Thanks Carl. But I am curious, do any research houses you know of use the term "IC Sales" for the larger number? I believe I have seen that already, but may be wrong on this point. Regards, Brian

To: C_Johnson who wrote (14824)	5/8/2005 8:56:21 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Carl I believe if you would break down capex in front and backend (using Gottfried's chart) one would find that frontend is far closer to the peak from 2000; Complexity is still a driver coupled with certain trends: for example high current single wafer implanter seems to be a "no brainer". The requirements for metrology and defect inspection will trend towards real time Dual core and eventually multi core will impact die size There is a difference between semiconductor sales and IC sales. IC sales are sales of Monolithic Integrated Circuits. So what as long as you are consistent; I don't think there is/was a huge difference in growthrates pending on the definition applied (did the segment that you exclude actually "outgrow" sales of Monolithic Integrated Circuits or did Monolithic IC out grow and what about integrating several functions into one die (what about TI phone on the chip; it's one highly integrated chip that gets rid of a number of monolithic IC's?) breaking down capex into front end and back end will probably reveal that front end is doing far better than backend. Of course growth will slow but rather pounding on slowing growth rates why not looking for the opportunities. But no - rather everybody seems to drink each other bath water and defaulting into the slow growth blues